- λ home
- 1.64
- λ away
- 1.36
- Σλ total
- 3.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.1%
Sporting JAX W vs DC Power W prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Sporting JAX W 43% · draw 25% · DC Power W 33%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Sporting JAX W v DC Power W: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Sporting JAX W v DC Power W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting JAX W (home) | 1.59 | 1.39 | 0.81 | 1.80 |
| DC Power W (away) | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.23 | 1.42 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.59 × 1.39 × 0.81 ≈ 1.80
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.22 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.93 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.73 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.64, λaway = 1.36
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 44.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sporting JAX W | 45.9% | 40.0% | 41.1% | 42.5% |
| X Draw | 23.9% | 19.0% | 28.5% | 24.7% |
| 2 DC Power W | 30.2% | 41.0% | 30.4% | 32.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.133 → 13.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sporting JAX W | 42.5% | 2.35 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -8.6% | |
| X · Draw | 24.7% | 4.05 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -23.5% | |
| 2 · DC Power W | 32.8% | 3.05 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -4.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 67.2% | 1.49 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -10.6% | |
| X2 | 57.5% | 1.74 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -6.9% | |
| 12 | 75.3% | 1.33 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -2.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sporting JAX W | 56.5% | 1.77 | – | – | – | |
| DNB DC Power W | 43.5% | 2.30 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -3.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.4% | 4.45 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -15.8% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 54.5% | 1.83 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +0.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -11.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.2% | 3.11 | 3.25 | 30.8% | +4.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.8% | 1.47 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -9.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -8.0% | |
| BTTS no | 43.2% | 2.31 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -9.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 34.1% | 2.93 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.5% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.4% | 3.79 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.545 × 1.85 − 1 = +0.008 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.010 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sporting JAX W | DC Power W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDDWDL | WWWWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-4-1 | 5-0-1 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Sporting JAX W 43%, draw 25%, DC Power W 33%. Standings: Sporting JAX W 4th on 17, DC Power W 2nd on 23.
Form
Sequence for Sporting JAX W: D D D W D L, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Dallas Trinity W. 2.5 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
DC Power W, last six: W W W W L W – five wins in total. Latest: 4–0 at home to Brooklyn W. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 2: Sporting JAX W 1, DC Power W 0, drawn 1, 1.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): DC Power W 1–1 Sporting JAX W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sporting JAX W 1.64 · DC Power W 1.36 · total 3.00. High total: over 2.5 55%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 55%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.83. Most probable score: Sporting JAX W 2–1 DC Power W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 5 Sep 2026DC Power W1–1Sporting JAX W
- 7 May 2026DC Power W0–1Sporting JAX W
USL Super League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Carolina Ascent W | 12 | +12 | 27 |
| 2 |  DC Power W | 12 | +9 | 23 |
| 3 |  Lexington W | 12 | +7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Sporting JAX W | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 5 |  Dallas Trinity W | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brooklyn W | 12 | -12 | 12 |
| 7 |  Tampa Bay Sun W | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 8 |  Fort Lauderdale United W | 13 | -16 | 8 |
More USL Super League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sporting JAX W vs DC Power W?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.85 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sporting JAX W v DC Power W probabilities?
Sporting JAX W win 43%, draw 25%, DC Power W win 33%.
What is the most probable score for Sporting JAX W vs DC Power W?
Sporting JAX W 2–1 DC Power W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sporting JAX W vs DC Power W?
Sporting JAX W 1.64, DC Power W 1.36 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Sporting JAX W vs DC Power W?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 23:00 WAT, at Hodges Stadium – USL Super League.