- λ home
- 1.34
- λ away
- 1.30
- Σλ total
- 2.64
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.4%
FC Gifu vs Matsumoto Yamaga prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
FC Gifu v Matsumoto Yamaga: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FC Gifu v Matsumoto Yamaga are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (17 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Gifu (home) | 1.52 | 1.14 | 0.81 | 1.40 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga (away) | 1.23 | 0.71 | 0.74 | 0.64 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 1.14 × 0.81 ≈ 1.40
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.04 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.41 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.83 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.64 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.34, λaway = 1.30
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 36.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC Gifu | 54.1% | 41.0% | 38.9% | 40.1% |
| X Draw | 29.1% | 17.0% | 27.5% | 21.4% |
| 2 Matsumoto Yamaga | 16.8% | 42.0% | 33.6% | 38.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC Gifu | 40.1% | 2.49 | 2.29 | 43.7% | -8.1% | |
| X · Draw | 21.4% | 4.67 | 3.24 | 30.9% | -30.6% | |
| 2 · Matsumoto Yamaga | 38.5% | 2.60 | 2.65 | 37.7% | +2.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 61.5% | 1.63 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -16.9% | |
| X2 | 59.9% | 1.67 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -12.0% | |
| 12 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -2.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC Gifu | 51.0% | 1.96 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Matsumoto Yamaga | 49.0% | 2.04 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 75.3% | 1.33 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -11.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.7% | 4.04 | 3.85 | 26.0% | -4.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 1.95 | 1.71 | 58.5% | -12.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.6% | 2.06 | 1.98 | 50.5% | -3.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.1% | 3.32 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -17.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -5.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.3% | 1.69 | 1.56 | 64.1% | -7.5% | |
| BTTS no | 40.7% | 2.46 | 2.18 | 45.9% | -11.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.1% | 3.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.8% | 2.34 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.1% | 3.56 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.593 × 1.56 − 1 = -0.075 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC Gifu | Matsumoto Yamaga |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWLWW | LLWLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 40 / 21 / 38% for home, draw, away. Standings: FC Gifu 1st on 32, Matsumoto Yamaga 15th on 18.
Form
Sequence for FC Gifu: W W W L W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Kitakyushu. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Matsumoto Yamaga, last six: L L W L W L – two wins in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to Kanazawa. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): FC Gifu 0–3 Matsumoto Yamaga. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC Gifu 1.34 · Matsumoto Yamaga 1.30 · total 2.64. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.56 v fair 1.69. Most probable score: FC Gifu 2–1 Matsumoto Yamaga. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 6 May 2026FC Gifu0–3Matsumoto Yamaga
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC Gifu vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.56 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC Gifu v Matsumoto Yamaga probabilities?
FC Gifu win 40%, draw 21%, Matsumoto Yamaga win 38%.
What is the most probable score for FC Gifu vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
FC Gifu 2–1 Matsumoto Yamaga is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC Gifu vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
FC Gifu 1.34, Matsumoto Yamaga 1.30 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is FC Gifu vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 06:00 WAT, at Gifu Memorial Center Nagaragawa Ball Field – J3 League.