- λ home
- 1.22
- λ away
- 1.17
- Σλ total
- 2.39
- P(over 2.5)
- 43%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.1%
Roasso Kumamoto vs Ehime FC prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Roasso Kumamoto v Ehime FC: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Roasso Kumamoto v Ehime FC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roasso Kumamoto (home) | 1.52 | 0.90 | 1.18 | 1.61 |
| Ehime FC (away) | 1.23 | 1.21 | 0.69 | 1.03 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 0.90 × 1.18 ≈ 1.61
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.64 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.39 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.39 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.22, λaway = 1.17
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Roasso Kumamoto | 49.9% | 44.0% | 33.6% | 39.6% |
| X Draw | 26.2% | 18.0% | 29.4% | 22.8% |
| 2 Ehime FC | 23.9% | 38.0% | 37.0% | 37.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.135 → 13.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Roasso Kumamoto | 39.6% | 2.52 | 2.62 | 38.2% | +3.9% | |
| X · Draw | 22.8% | 4.39 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -31.7% | |
| 2 · Ehime FC | 37.6% | 2.66 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -10.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.4% | 1.60 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -6.4% | |
| X2 | 60.4% | 1.66 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -15.5% | |
| 12 | 77.2% | 1.29 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +2.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Roasso Kumamoto | 51.3% | 1.95 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ehime FC | 48.7% | 2.05 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 31.1% | 3.22 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 42.8% | 2.34 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 21.9% | 4.56 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 78.1% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.4% | 1.71 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -5.5% | |
| BTTS no | 41.6% | 2.40 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -12.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 28.0% | 3.57 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.3% | 2.21 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.7% | 3.74 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.584 × 1.62 − 1 = -0.055 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Roasso Kumamoto | Ehime FC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLWDWD | WLDWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Roasso Kumamoto 40%, draw 23%, Ehime FC 38%. Standings: Roasso Kumamoto 8th on 24, Ehime FC 7th on 29.
Form
Sequence for Roasso Kumamoto: D L W D W D, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Biwako Shiga. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Ehime FC have three wins from their last six (W L D W L W). Latest: 3–1 at home to Thespakusatsu Gunma. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Ehime FC 0–1 Roasso Kumamoto. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Roasso Kumamoto 1.22 · Ehime FC 1.17 · total 2.39. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 43%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.71. Most probable score: Roasso Kumamoto 2–1 Ehime FC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 30 May 2026Ehime FC0–1Roasso Kumamoto
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Roasso Kumamoto vs Ehime FC?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Roasso Kumamoto v Ehime FC probabilities?
Roasso Kumamoto win 40%, draw 23%, Ehime FC win 38%.
What is the most probable score for Roasso Kumamoto vs Ehime FC?
Roasso Kumamoto 2–1 Ehime FC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Roasso Kumamoto vs Ehime FC?
Roasso Kumamoto 1.22, Ehime FC 1.17 – over 2.5 at 43%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Roasso Kumamoto vs Ehime FC?
Sunday 11 October 2026, 05:00 WAT, at Egao Kenko Stadium – J3 League.