- λ home
- 1.42
- λ away
- 1.11
- Σλ total
- 2.52
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.6%
Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Tochigi SC v Matsumoto Yamaga: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Tochigi SC v Matsumoto Yamaga are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tochigi SC (home) | 1.52 | 0.71 | 0.81 | 0.87 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga (away) | 1.23 | 0.71 | 0.74 | 0.64 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 0.71 × 0.81 ≈ 0.87
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.52 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.64 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.43 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.52 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.42, λaway = 1.11
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 44.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 29.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tochigi SC | 37.4% | 50.0% | 40.5% | 46.0% |
| X Draw | 38.1% | 18.0% | 28.8% | 22.5% |
| 2 Matsumoto Yamaga | 24.5% | 32.0% | 30.7% | 31.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Tochigi SC | 46.0% | 2.17 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +1.2% | |
| X · Draw | 22.5% | 4.44 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -30.2% | |
| 2 · Matsumoto Yamaga | 31.5% | 3.18 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -8.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 68.5% | 1.46 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 54.0% | 1.85 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 77.5% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Tochigi SC | 59.4% | 1.68 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Matsumoto Yamaga | 40.6% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.7% | 1.39 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.3% | 3.54 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.0% | 2.22 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -3.3% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 55.0% | 1.82 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -8.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.7% | 4.04 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.3% | 1.33 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.9% | 2.05 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 51.1% | 1.96 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.5% | 3.07 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.7% | 2.29 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.7% | 4.21 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.550 × 1.67 − 1 = -0.081 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Tochigi SC | Matsumoto Yamaga |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLWLL | DLDDDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 0-5-1 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Tochigi SC 46%, draw 23%, Matsumoto Yamaga 31%. Standings: Tochigi SC 14th on 21, Matsumoto Yamaga 15th on 18.
Form
Tochigi SC, last six: L D L W L L – one win in total. Latest: 1–3 away at Kagoshima United. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Sequence for Matsumoto Yamaga: D L D D D D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Roasso Kumamoto. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Tochigi SC 1.42 · Matsumoto Yamaga 1.11 · total 2.52. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 49%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 55%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.82. Most probable score: Tochigi SC 1–0 Matsumoto Yamaga. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Tochigi SC v Matsumoto Yamaga probabilities?
Tochigi SC win 46%, draw 23%, Matsumoto Yamaga win 31%.
What is the most probable score for Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
Tochigi SC 1–0 Matsumoto Yamaga is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
Tochigi SC 1.42, Matsumoto Yamaga 1.11 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
Saturday 26 September 2026, 09:00 WAT, at Kanseki Stadium Tochigi – J3 League.