- λ home
- 0.93
- λ away
- 1.90
- Σλ total
- 2.83
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 0–1 11.2%
Parceiro Nagano vs FC Gifu prediction & xG model: FC Gifu to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Parceiro Nagano v FC Gifu: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipFC Gifu to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Parceiro Nagano v FC Gifu are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parceiro Nagano (home) | 1.52 | 1.00 | 0.74 | 1.12 |
| FC Gifu (away) | 1.23 | 1.14 | 0.97 | 1.37 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 1.00 × 0.74 ≈ 1.12
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.49 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.83 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.83 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.93, λaway = 1.90
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 17.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 60.1%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 11.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Parceiro Nagano | 30.1% | 13.0% | 21.1% | 16.4% |
| X Draw | 28.2% | 23.0% | 27.7% | 25.0% |
| 2 FC Gifu | 41.7% | 64.0% | 51.2% | 58.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.129 → 12.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Parceiro Nagano | 16.4% | 6.10 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -31.1% | |
| X · Draw | 25.0% | 4.00 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -20.1% | |
| 2 · FC Gifu pick | 58.6% | 1.71 | 1.73 | 57.8% | +1.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 41.4% | 2.42 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -21.0% | |
| X2 | 83.6% | 1.20 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -1.4% | |
| 12 | 75.0% | 1.33 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -2.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Parceiro Nagano | 21.9% | 4.57 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FC Gifu | 78.1% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.4% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.6% | 4.42 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.2% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.5% | 3.18 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.5% | 1.46 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 55.8% | 1.79 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -3.4% | |
| BTTS no | 44.2% | 2.26 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -13.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 17.0% | 5.89 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.5% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 43.5% | 2.30 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.586 × 1.73 − 1 = +0.014 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.020 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.5% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Parceiro Nagano | FC Gifu |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDDLLW | LLDWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 59% against 16%. Standings: Parceiro Nagano 10th on 23, FC Gifu 1st on 32.
Form
Parceiro Nagano, last six: D D D L L W – one win in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Tochigi SC. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
FC Gifu have one win from their last six (L L D W L D). Latest: 1–2 away at Nara Club. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 2: Parceiro Nagano 0, FC Gifu 2, drawn 0, 5.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (May 2026): Parceiro Nagano 2–3 FC Gifu. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Parceiro Nagano 0.93 · FC Gifu 1.90 · total 2.83. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: FC Gifu to win, probability 59%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.71. Most probable score: Parceiro Nagano 0–1 FC Gifu. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 9 May 2026Parceiro Nagano2–3FC Gifu
- 28 Mar 2026FC Gifu5–1Parceiro Nagano
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Parceiro Nagano vs FC Gifu?
The Model pick is FC Gifu to win with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Parceiro Nagano v FC Gifu probabilities?
Parceiro Nagano win 16%, draw 25%, FC Gifu win 59%.
What is the most probable score for Parceiro Nagano vs FC Gifu?
Parceiro Nagano 0–1 FC Gifu is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Parceiro Nagano vs FC Gifu?
Parceiro Nagano 0.93, FC Gifu 1.90 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Parceiro Nagano vs FC Gifu?
Sunday 20 September 2026, 09:00 WAT, at Nagano U Stadium – J3 League.