- λ home
- 1.24
- λ away
- 1.41
- Σλ total
- 2.65
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.3%
OFK Vršac vs Javor prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: OFK Vršac 34% · draw 23% · Javor 42%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
OFK Vršac v Javor: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for OFK Vršac v Javor are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.82 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.51 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.65 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.24, λaway = 1.41
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 33.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 41.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 OFK Vršac | – | 38.0% | 29.6% | 34.5% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 30.1% | 23.1% |
| 2 Javor | – | 44.0% | 40.3% | 42.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.089 → 8.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · OFK Vršac | 34.5% | 2.90 | 3.10 | 32.3% | +6.9% | |
| X · Draw | 23.1% | 4.33 | 3.05 | 32.8% | -29.6% | |
| 2 · Javor | 42.4% | 2.36 | 2.28 | 43.9% | -3.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 57.6% | 1.74 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -12.5% | |
| X2 | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -13.5% | |
| 12 | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.32 | 75.8% | +1.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB OFK Vršac | 44.8% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Javor | 55.2% | 1.81 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 72.0% | 1.39 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -6.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.0% | 3.57 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -16.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.7% | 2.10 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -4.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.3% | 1.91 | 1.71 | 58.5% | -10.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.7% | 3.61 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -8.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -8.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 54.2% | 1.85 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -1.4% | |
| BTTS no | 45.8% | 2.18 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -10.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.3% | 3.81 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.6% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 31.1% | 3.21 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.720 × 1.30 − 1 = -0.064 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | OFK Vršac | Javor |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLDWL | DWWWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Javor narrowly ahead at 42%; OFK Vršac 34%. Standings: OFK Vršac 4th on 30, Javor 2nd on 34.
Form
Sequence for OFK Vršac: D W L D W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Naftagas. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Javor have four wins from their last six (D W W W W D). Latest: 2–2 at home to TSC Backa Topola. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average.
Head to head
Last meeting (Aug 2026): Javor 1–2 OFK Vršac. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG OFK Vršac 1.24 · Javor 1.41 · total 2.65. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 72%, odds 1.30 v fair 1.39. Most probable score: OFK Vršac 1–2 Javor. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 15 Aug 2026Javor1–2OFK Vršac
Prva Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borac Cacak | 17 | +10 | 36 |
| 2 |  Javor | 17 | +20 | 34 |
| 3 |  TSC Backa Topola | 17 | +18 | 34 |
| 4 |  OFK Vršac | 17 | +5 | 30 |
| 5 |  Dubočica | 17 | 0 | 26 |
| 6 |  Semendrija 1924 | 17 | 0 | 25 |
| 7 |  Napredak | 17 | -1 | 25 |
| 8 |  FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 17 | -3 | 23 |
| 9 |  Naftagas | 17 | +6 | 22 |
| 10 |  FK Vozdovac | 17 | 0 | 20 |
| 11 |  Loznica | 17 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 |  Metalac GM | 17 | -6 | 19 |
| 13 |  Jedinstvo Ub | 17 | -6 | 18 |
| 14 |  Grafičar | 17 | -5 | 17 |
| 15 |  Teleoptik | 17 | -9 | 14 |
| 16 |  OFK Bor 1919 | 17 | -25 | 8 |
More Prva Liga predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for OFK Vršac vs Javor?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 72, priced around 1.30 by the bookmakers.
What are the OFK Vršac v Javor probabilities?
OFK Vršac win 34%, draw 23%, Javor win 42%.
What is the most probable score for OFK Vršac vs Javor?
OFK Vršac 1–2 Javor is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for OFK Vršac vs Javor?
OFK Vršac 1.24, Javor 1.41 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is OFK Vršac vs Javor?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 13:00 WAT, at Gradski stadion Vrsac – Prva Liga.