- λ home
- 1.39
- λ away
- 1.09
- Σλ total
- 2.48
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.7%
Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Radnik Surdulica v Radnicki NIS: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Radnik Surdulica v Radnicki NIS are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (29 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radnik Surdulica (home) | 1.66 | 0.98 | 1.14 | 1.87 |
| Radnicki NIS (away) | 1.38 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 0.97 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.98 × 1.14 ≈ 1.87
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.84 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.48 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.48 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.39, λaway = 1.09
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 43.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 29.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Radnik Surdulica | 57.5% | 48.0% | 42.5% | 45.7% |
| X Draw | 23.5% | 18.0% | 28.8% | 22.5% |
| 2 Radnicki NIS | 19.0% | 34.0% | 28.8% | 31.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Radnik Surdulica | 45.7% | 2.19 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -4.1% | |
| X · Draw | 22.5% | 4.44 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -30.2% | |
| 2 · Radnicki NIS | 31.8% | 3.14 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -1.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 68.2% | 1.47 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -7.9% | |
| X2 | 54.3% | 1.84 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -12.0% | |
| 12 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +0.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Radnik Surdulica | 59.0% | 1.70 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Radnicki NIS | 41.0% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.9% | 1.41 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.1% | 3.43 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.1% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.8% | 4.20 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 76.2% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.2% | 1.72 | 1.75 | 57.1% | +1.8% | |
| BTTS no | 41.8% | 2.39 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -18.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.1% | 3.12 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.2% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.7% | 4.22 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.582 × 1.75 − 1 = +0.018 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.025 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.6% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Radnik Surdulica | Radnicki NIS |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDDDWL | LLWLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Radnik Surdulica ahead at 46%, against 32% for Radnicki NIS and 23% for the draw. Standings: Radnik Surdulica 6th on 23, Radnicki NIS 13th on 8.
Form
Radnik Surdulica, last six: L D D D W L – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 away at IMT Novi Beograd. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Radnicki NIS, last six: L L W L D L – one win in total. Latest: 1–4 at home to Vojvodina. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Radnik Surdulica 2–2 Radnicki NIS. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Radnik Surdulica 1.39 · Radnicki NIS 1.09 · total 2.48. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.75 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Radnik Surdulica 2–1 Radnicki NIS. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 8 Mar 2026Radnik Surdulica2–2Radnicki NIS
Super Liga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 15 | +32 | 43 |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 15 | +17 | 32 |
| 3 |  Železničar Pančevo | 14 | +12 | 29 |
| 4 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 15 | +3 | 23 |
| 6 |  Radnik Surdulica | 15 | +2 | 23 |
| 7 |  Cukaricki | 15 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 |  Novi Pazar | 15 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 |  Mladost Lucani | 15 | -9 | 18 |
| 10 |  FK Partizan | 15 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Macva | 15 | -13 | 13 |
| 12 |  OFK Beograd | 15 | -12 | 11 |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 14 | -15 | 8 |
| 14 |  Zemun | 15 | -21 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.75 by the bookmakers.
What are the Radnik Surdulica v Radnicki NIS probabilities?
Radnik Surdulica win 46%, draw 23%, Radnicki NIS win 32%.
What is the most probable score for Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS?
Radnik Surdulica 2–1 Radnicki NIS is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS?
Radnik Surdulica 1.39, Radnicki NIS 1.09 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS?
Friday 16 October 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Stadion FK Radnik – Super Liga.