Serbia Super Liga Thu 10 Sep 2026 · EFBET Stadion Full time

FK Crvena Zvezda

WWLWW

10%P(1)17%P(X)73%P(2)

λ home: 0.78
λ away: 2.43
Σλ total: 3.22
P(over 2.5): 64%
P(BTTS): 54%
Modal score: 0–2 11.9%

Radnik Surdulica vs FK Crvena Zvezda prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Radnik Surdulica v FK Crvena Zvezda: how the Arena called it

Full time: 0–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Radnik Surdulica v FK Crvena Zvezda are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (29 and 42 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Radnik Surdulica (home)	1.66	0.98	0.58	0.95
FK Crvena Zvezda (away)	1.38	1.69	0.88	2.05

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 0.98 × 0.58 ≈ 0.95

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	3.00	45%
Statistical xG feed	3.00	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.40	30%
Blended total λ	3.22	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 0.78, λ_away = 2.43

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Radnik Surdulica λ = 0.78

045.7%

135.8%

214.0%

33.7%

40.7%

5+0.1%

FK Crvena Zvezda λ = 2.43

08.8%

121.4%

226.0%

321.1%

412.8%

5+10.0%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Rad \ FK 012345+

04.09.8129.65.84.6

13.17.69.37.54.63.6

21.23.03.63.01.81.4

3·0.81.00.8··

4······

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 10.1%
Σ draw cells: 16.2%
Σ away-win cells: 73.7%
Most probable score: 0–2 · 11.9%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Radnik Surdulica	16.4%	11.0%	8.3%	9.9%
X Draw	21.6%	18.0%	14.8%	16.6%
2 FK Crvena Zvezda	62.0%	71.0%	76.9%	73.5%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.093 → 9.3% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Radnik Surdulica	9.9%	10.13	11.00	9.1%	+8.6%
X · Draw	16.6%	6.01	6.20	16.1%	+3.2%
2 · FK Crvena Zvezda	73.5%	1.36	1.19	84.0%	-12.6%
Double chance
1X	26.5%	3.77	–	–	–
X2	90.1%	1.11	–	–	–
12	83.4%	1.20	–	–	–
Draw no bet
DNB Radnik Surdulica	11.8%	8.44	–	–	–
DNB FK Crvena Zvezda	88.2%	1.13	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	83.5%	1.20	1.11	90.1%	-7.4%
Under 1.5	16.5%	6.04	5.75	17.4%	-4.9%
Over 2.5	64.1%	1.56	1.42	70.4%	-8.9%
Under 2.5	35.9%	2.79	2.75	36.4%	-1.4%
Over 3.5	42.9%	2.33	2.05	48.8%	-12.0%
Under 3.5	57.1%	1.75	1.73	57.8%	-1.3%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	54.2%	1.85	1.90	52.6%	+2.9%
BTTS no	45.8%	2.18	1.75	57.1%	-19.8%
Half-time
HT 1	11.9%	8.43	–	–	–
HT X	34.1%	2.93	–	–	–
HT 2	54.0%	1.85	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability54.2%

Fair odds1.85

Best odds1.90

EV per unit+2.9%

EV = 0.542 × 1.90 − 1 = +0.029 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.032 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.8% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Radnik Surdulica	FK Crvena Zvezda
Sequence	WLWWLD	WWLWWL
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	3-1-2	4-0-2
Points per match	1.67	2.00
Goals for / match	1.33	2.00
Goals against / match	1.50	1.17
Over 2.5	67%	67%
BTTS	67%	33%
Clean sheets	33%	50%
Failed to score	17%	17%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Away favourites: FK Crvena Zvezda 73%, Radnik Surdulica 10%. Standings: Radnik Surdulica 6th on 23, FK Crvena Zvezda 1st on 43.

Form

Sequence for Radnik Surdulica: W L W W L D, so three victories in six. Latest: 3–1 at home to Cukaricki. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded.

FK Crvena Zvezda have four wins from their last six (W W L W W L). Latest: 2–1 at home to FK Partizan. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Previous 2: Radnik Surdulica 0, FK Crvena Zvezda 1, drawn 1, 1.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (May 2026): Radnik Surdulica 0–0 FK Crvena Zvezda. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Radnik Surdulica 0.78 · FK Crvena Zvezda 2.43 · total 3.22. Goals expected – 64% for over 2.5 and 54% for both teams to score.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 1.90 v fair 1.85. Most probable score: Radnik Surdulica 1–2 FK Crvena Zvezda. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.

Head-to-head

Every meeting →

17 May 2026Radnik Surdulica0–0FK Crvena Zvezda
5 Apr 2026Radnik Surdulica1–2FK Crvena Zvezda

Super Liga table

League page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Crvena Zvezda	15	14	1	0	+32	43
2	Vojvodina	15	10	2	3	+17	32
3	Železničar Pančevo	14	9	2	3	+12	29
4	IMT Novi Beograd	15	6	5	4	+6	23
5	Radnicki 1923	15	7	2	6	+3	23
6	Radnik Surdulica	15	6	5	4	+2	23
7	Cukaricki	15	6	4	5	0	22
8	Novi Pazar	15	5	4	6	-1	19
9	Mladost Lucani	15	4	6	5	-9	18
10	FK Partizan	15	5	2	8	-1	17
11	Macva	15	3	4	8	-13	13
12	OFK Beograd	15	2	5	8	-12	11
13	Radnicki NIS	14	2	2	10	-15	8
14	Zemun	15	1	4	10	-21	7