- λ home
- 3.04
- λ away
- 1.13
- Σλ total
- 4.17
- P(over 2.5)
- 78%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 3–1 8.2%
Feyenoord vs Excelsior prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Feyenoord 76% · draw 15% · Excelsior 9%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Feyenoord v Excelsior: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Feyenoord v Excelsior are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 18 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord (home) | 1.90 | 1.35 | 1.19 | 3.07 |
| Excelsior (away) | 1.86 | 0.80 | 0.82 | 1.21 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.90 × 1.35 × 1.19 ≈ 3.07
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.28 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.08 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 4.09 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 4.17 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 3.04, λaway = 1.13
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 75.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 13.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 10.9%
- Most probable score
- 3–1 · 8.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feyenoord | 74.0% | 70.0% | 81.3% | 76.1% |
| X Draw | 14.3% | 21.0% | 11.6% | 14.7% |
| 2 Excelsior | 11.7% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 9.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.079 → 7.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Feyenoord | 76.1% | 1.31 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -13.2% | |
| X · Draw | 14.7% | 6.79 | 8.00 | 12.5% | +17.7% | |
| 2 · Excelsior | 9.1% | 10.94 | 13.00 | 7.7% | +18.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 90.9% | 1.10 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -6.4% | |
| X2 | 23.9% | 4.19 | 6.50 | 15.4% | +55.1% | |
| 12 | 85.3% | 1.17 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -8.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Feyenoord | 89.3% | 1.12 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Excelsior | 10.7% | 9.33 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 91.2% | 1.10 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -3.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 8.8% | 11.39 | 10.00 | 10.0% | -12.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 78.0% | 1.28 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -4.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 22.0% | 4.56 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -7.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -4.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 41.2% | 2.43 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -9.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 61.5% | 1.63 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +10.7% | |
| BTTS no | 38.5% | 2.60 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -25.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 57.6% | 1.74 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 28.6% | 3.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.8% | 7.22 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.615 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.107 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.134 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Feyenoord | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDDLW | LLWLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Feyenoord at 76%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Feyenoord 2nd on 25, Excelsior 15th on 11.
Form
Sequence for Feyenoord: L L D D L W, so one victory in six. Latest: 3–5 away at Heerenveen. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Excelsior: L L W L L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–1 at home to GO Ahead Eagles. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Feyenoord 2–1 Excelsior. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Feyenoord 3.04 · Excelsior 1.13 · total 4.17. High total: over 2.5 78%, BTTS 62%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 62%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.63. Most probable score: Feyenoord 3–1 Excelsior. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 15 Mar 2026Feyenoord2–1Excelsior
Eredivisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 12 | +25 | 26 |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 12 | +19 | 25 |
| 3 |  Ajax | 12 | +17 | 25 |
| 4 |  Twente | 12 | +18 | 24 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 12 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |  Heerenveen | 12 | +8 | 21 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 |  Groningen | 12 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Cambuur | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 |  Utrecht | 12 | -13 | 12 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 12 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 12 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 12 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 12 | -29 | 3 |
More Eredivisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Feyenoord v Excelsior probabilities?
Feyenoord win 76%, draw 15%, Excelsior win 9%.
What is the most probable score for Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
Feyenoord 3–1 Excelsior is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
Feyenoord 3.04, Excelsior 1.13 – over 2.5 at 78%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Feyenoord vs Excelsior?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 18:45 WAT, at De Kuip – Eredivisie.