- λ home
- 2.66
- λ away
- 1.26
- Σλ total
- 3.92
- P(over 2.5)
- 75%
- P(BTTS)
- 66%
- Modal score
- 2–1 8.8%
Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport prediction & xG model: Den Bosch to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Den Bosch v Helmond Sport: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipDen Bosch to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Den Bosch v Helmond Sport are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (23 and 26 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Den Bosch (home) | 1.86 | 0.91 | 1.31 | 2.20 |
| Helmond Sport (away) | 1.57 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.86 × 0.91 × 1.31 ≈ 2.20
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.70 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.92 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.92 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.66, λaway = 1.26
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 67.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 16.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.9%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 8.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Den Bosch | 53.2% | 71.0% | 54.1% | 63.9% |
| X Draw | 21.1% | 24.0% | 23.0% | 23.6% |
| 2 Helmond Sport | 25.7% | 5.0% | 23.0% | 12.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.088 → 8.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Den Bosch pick | 63.9% | 1.57 | 1.70 | 58.8% | +8.6% | |
| X · Draw | 23.6% | 4.24 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -5.7% | |
| 2 · Helmond Sport | 12.5% | 7.97 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -49.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.5% | 1.14 | 1.22 | 82.0% | +6.7% | |
| X2 | 36.1% | 2.77 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -26.0% | |
| 12 | 76.4% | 1.31 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -6.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Den Bosch | 83.6% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Helmond Sport | 16.4% | 6.09 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 90.2% | 1.11 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 9.8% | 10.24 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 75.0% | 1.33 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 25.0% | 4.00 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 55.1% | 1.82 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 44.9% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 66.3% | 1.51 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -9.8% | |
| BTTS no | 33.7% | 2.97 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -5.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 51.1% | 1.96 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 31.4% | 3.18 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.5% | 5.72 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.639 × 1.70 − 1 = +0.086 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.123 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Den Bosch | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLWLD | WWLDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.50 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Den Bosch 64% to win. Standings: Den Bosch 3rd on 0, Helmond Sport 7th on 0.
Form
Sequence for Den Bosch: L L L W L D, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–2 away at FC Volendam. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Helmond Sport, last six: W W L D L D – two wins in total. Latest: 3–1 at home to Jong PSV U21. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Den Bosch 2.66 · Helmond Sport 1.26 · total 3.92. Goals expected – 75% for over 2.5 and 66% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Den Bosch to win, probability 64%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.57. Most probable score: Den Bosch 2–1 Helmond Sport. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Eerste Divisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 15 | +30 | 38 |
| 2 |  Almere City FC | 15 | +21 | 31 |
| 3 |  VVV Venlo | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 15 | +7 | 28 |
| 5 |  Roda | 15 | +3 | 28 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 15 | -2 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 15 | +7 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Waalwijk | 15 | +7 | 20 |
| 10 |  Den Bosch | 15 | -2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  FC OSS | 15 | -2 | 17 |
| 15 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 16 |  De Graafschap | 14 | -11 | 15 |
| 17 |  FC Eindhoven | 15 | -12 | 14 |
| 18 |  Helmond Sport | 15 | -11 | 12 |
| 19 |  Dordrecht | 15 | -17 | 12 |
| 20 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?
The Model pick is Den Bosch to win with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the Den Bosch v Helmond Sport probabilities?
Den Bosch win 64%, draw 24%, Helmond Sport win 13%.
What is the most probable score for Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?
Den Bosch 2–1 Helmond Sport is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?
Den Bosch 2.66, Helmond Sport 1.26 – over 2.5 at 75%, BTTS at 66%.
What time is Den Bosch vs Helmond Sport?
Friday 18 September 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Stadion de Vliert – Eerste Divisie.