- λ home
- 2.08
- λ away
- 0.78
- Σλ total
- 2.85
- P(over 2.5)
- 57%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 2–0 12.4%
CS Herediano vs Inter San Carlos prediction & xG model: CS Herediano to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
CS Herediano v Inter San Carlos: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipCS Herediano to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for CS Herediano v Inter San Carlos are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (38 and 29 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS Herediano (home) | 1.66 | 0.81 | 0.89 | 1.21 |
| Inter San Carlos (away) | 1.38 | 0.93 | 0.65 | 0.83 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.81 × 0.89 ≈ 1.21
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.04 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.57 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.09 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.85 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.08, λaway = 0.78
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 67.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.9%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 12.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 CS Herediano | 43.9% | 71.0% | 61.7% | 67.1% |
| X Draw | 31.4% | 20.0% | 21.3% | 20.5% |
| 2 Inter San Carlos | 24.7% | 9.0% | 17.0% | 12.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · CS Herediano pick | 67.1% | 1.49 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -2.7% | |
| X · Draw | 20.5% | 4.87 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -13.7% | |
| 2 · Inter San Carlos | 12.4% | 8.08 | 5.25 | 19.0% | -35.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.6% | 1.14 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -5.4% | |
| X2 | 32.9% | 3.04 | 2.34 | 42.7% | -23.0% | |
| 12 | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -9.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB CS Herediano | 84.4% | 1.18 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Inter San Carlos | 15.6% | 6.42 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -10.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.2% | 4.73 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -4.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -12.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 43.1% | 2.32 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -2.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.4% | 2.82 | 2.33 | 42.9% | -17.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.6% | 1.55 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -4.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -6.5% | |
| BTTS no | 43.0% | 2.33 | 2.07 | 48.3% | -11.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 48.5% | 2.06 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.1% | 2.62 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.4% | 7.47 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.671 × 1.45 − 1 = -0.027 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | CS Herediano | Inter San Carlos |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWWDL | DLLLWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
CS Herediano at 67%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: CS Herediano 8th on 15, Inter San Carlos 6th on 20.
Form
CS Herediano have two wins from their last six (L L W W D L). Latest: 0–2 at home to Deportivo Saprissa. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Sequence for Inter San Carlos: D L L L W D, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to CS Cartagines. Per match: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Aug 2026): Inter San Carlos 1–1 CS Herediano. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG CS Herediano 2.08 · Inter San Carlos 0.78 · total 2.85. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 57%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: CS Herediano to win, probability 67%, odds 1.45 v fair 1.49. Most probable score: CS Herediano 2–0 Inter San Carlos. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 3 Aug 2026Inter San Carlos1–1CS Herediano
Primera División table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Saprissa | 16 | +16 | 31 |
| 2 |  CS Cartagines | 16 | +12 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sporting San Jose | 16 | +7 | 30 |
| 4 |  LD Alajuelense | 16 | +12 | 29 |
| 5 |  San Carlos | 16 | -2 | 26 |
| 6 |  Inter San Carlos | 16 | -6 | 20 |
| 7 |  Puntarenas FC | 16 | -6 | 19 |
| 8 |  CS Herediano | 16 | -5 | 15 |
| 9 |  Escorpiones Belén | 16 | -12 | 13 |
| 10 |  Perez Zeledon | 16 | -16 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for CS Herediano vs Inter San Carlos?
The Model pick is CS Herediano to win with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.45 by the bookmakers.
What are the CS Herediano v Inter San Carlos probabilities?
CS Herediano win 67%, draw 21%, Inter San Carlos win 12%.
What is the most probable score for CS Herediano vs Inter San Carlos?
CS Herediano 2–0 Inter San Carlos is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for CS Herediano vs Inter San Carlos?
CS Herediano 2.08, Inter San Carlos 0.78 – over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is CS Herediano vs Inter San Carlos?
Monday 9 November 2026, 01:30 WAT, at Estadio Carlos Alvarado – Primera División.