- λ home
- 1.85
- λ away
- 0.94
- Σλ total
- 2.79
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.3%
Club Tijuana vs Atlante FC prediction & xG model: Club Tijuana to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Club Tijuana 60% · draw 23% · Atlante FC 18%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Club Tijuana v Atlante FC: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Club Tijuana v Atlante FC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Tijuana (home) | 1.61 | 1.00 | 1.09 | 1.75 |
| Atlante FC (away) | 1.39 | 0.75 | 0.89 | 0.93 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.61 × 1.00 × 1.09 ≈ 1.75
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.68 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.78 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.98 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.79 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.85, λaway = 0.94
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 58.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 11.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Club Tijuana | 55.9% | 75.0% | 54.8% | 59.9% |
| X Draw | 24.7% | 16.0% | 24.5% | 22.6% |
| 2 Atlante FC | 19.4% | 9.0% | 20.7% | 17.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.074 → 7.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Club Tijuana pick | 59.9% | 1.67 | 1.70 | 58.8% | +1.8% | |
| X · Draw | 22.6% | 4.43 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -14.2% | |
| 2 · Atlante FC | 17.5% | 5.70 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -21.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 82.5% | 1.21 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -2.7% | |
| X2 | 40.1% | 2.49 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -15.7% | |
| 12 | 77.4% | 1.29 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -3.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Club Tijuana | 77.3% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Atlante FC | 22.7% | 4.41 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.0% | 1.28 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -8.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.0% | 4.55 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -1.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -9.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.0% | 2.22 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -1.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.1% | 2.93 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -14.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.9% | 1.52 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -1.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -4.8% | |
| BTTS no | 43.0% | 2.33 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -9.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.5% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.0% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.5% | 5.72 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.599 × 1.70 − 1 = +0.018 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.025 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.6% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Club Tijuana | Atlante FC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDDWDD | LLLWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-4-1 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Club Tijuana ahead at 60%, against 18% for Atlante FC and 23% for the draw. Standings: Club Tijuana 9th on 22, Atlante FC 16th on 14.
Form
Sequence for Club Tijuana: L D D W D D, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–1 away at Necaxa. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Atlante FC have one win from their last six (L L L W L L). Latest: 0–2 at home to Santos Laguna. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Club Tijuana 1.85 · Atlante FC 0.94 · total 2.79. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 55%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Club Tijuana to win, probability 60%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.67. Most probable score: Club Tijuana 1–0 Atlante FC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Liga MX table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cruz Azul | 16 | +11 | 32 |
| 2 |  Club America | 16 | +15 | 30 |
| 3 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | +11 | 30 |
| 4 |  Toluca | 16 | +14 | 27 |
| 5 |  Atlas | 16 | -3 | 27 |
| 6 |  Santos Laguna | 16 | +3 | 25 |
| 7 |  Leon | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 8 |  CF Pachuca | 16 | +9 | 22 |
| 9 |  Club Tijuana | 16 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Monterrey | 15 | +1 | 21 |
| 11 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | -2 | 21 |
| 12 |  Club Queretaro | 15 | -5 | 20 |
| 13 |  Puebla | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 14 |  Atletico San Luis | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 15 |  Tigres UANL | 16 | -8 | 15 |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 16 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 16 | -21 | 11 |
More Liga MX predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Club Tijuana vs Atlante FC?
The Model pick is Club Tijuana to win with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the Club Tijuana v Atlante FC probabilities?
Club Tijuana win 60%, draw 23%, Atlante FC win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Club Tijuana vs Atlante FC?
Club Tijuana 1–0 Atlante FC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Club Tijuana vs Atlante FC?
Club Tijuana 1.85, Atlante FC 0.94 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Club Tijuana vs Atlante FC?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 04:00 WAT, at Estadio Caliente – Liga MX.