- λ home
- 1.95
- λ away
- 0.83
- Σλ total
- 2.78
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.1%
Club Queretaro vs Puebla prediction & xG model: Club Queretaro to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Club Queretaro v Puebla: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipClub Queretaro to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Club Queretaro v Puebla are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 28 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Queretaro (home) | 1.61 | 0.81 | 1.03 | 1.34 |
| Puebla (away) | 1.39 | 0.81 | 1.03 | 1.16 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.61 × 0.81 × 1.03 ≈ 1.34
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.50 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.72 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.84 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.78 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.95, λaway = 0.83
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 63.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Club Queretaro | 40.3% | 71.0% | 52.8% | 63.3% |
| X Draw | 28.2% | 19.0% | 25.3% | 21.7% |
| 2 Puebla | 31.5% | 10.0% | 21.9% | 15.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.053 → 5.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Club Queretaro pick | 63.3% | 1.58 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +14.0% | |
| X · Draw | 21.7% | 4.62 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -18.8% | |
| 2 · Puebla | 15.0% | 6.66 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -35.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.0% | 1.18 | 1.22 | 82.0% | +3.7% | |
| X2 | 36.7% | 2.73 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -30.0% | |
| 12 | 78.3% | 1.28 | 1.28 | 78.1% | +0.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Club Queretaro | 80.8% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Puebla | 19.2% | 5.22 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.6% | 1.31 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -6.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.4% | 4.28 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -6.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 1.88 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -6.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.7% | 2.14 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -4.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.1% | 3.12 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -11.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -4.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 55.7% | 1.79 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -5.3% | |
| BTTS no | 44.3% | 2.26 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -9.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.6% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.4% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.0% | 6.65 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.633 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.140 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.175 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Club Queretaro | Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLLWW | LLLDDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 0-2-4 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Club Queretaro 63% to win. Standings: Club Queretaro 12th on 20, Puebla 13th on 19.
Form
Sequence for Club Queretaro: L L L L W W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–3 away at FC Juarez. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.2 conceded.
Puebla, last six: L L L D D L – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–2 at home to U.N.A.M. - Pumas. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Puebla 1–2 Club Queretaro. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Club Queretaro 1.95 · Puebla 0.83 · total 2.78. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Club Queretaro to win, probability 63%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.58. Most probable score: Club Queretaro 1–0 Puebla. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 25 Apr 2026Puebla1–2Club Queretaro
Liga MX table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cruz Azul | 16 | +11 | 32 |
| 2 |  Club America | 16 | +15 | 30 |
| 3 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | +11 | 30 |
| 4 |  Toluca | 16 | +14 | 27 |
| 5 |  Atlas | 16 | -3 | 27 |
| 6 |  Santos Laguna | 16 | +3 | 25 |
| 7 |  Leon | 16 | +2 | 23 |
| 8 |  CF Pachuca | 16 | +9 | 22 |
| 9 |  Club Tijuana | 16 | +3 | 22 |
| 10 |  Monterrey | 15 | +1 | 21 |
| 11 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | -2 | 21 |
| 12 |  Club Queretaro | 15 | -5 | 20 |
| 13 |  Puebla | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 14 |  Atletico San Luis | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 15 |  Tigres UANL | 16 | -8 | 15 |
| 16 |  Atlante FC | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 17 |  Necaxa | 16 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 16 | -21 | 11 |
More Liga MX predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Club Queretaro vs Puebla?
The Model pick is Club Queretaro to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Club Queretaro v Puebla probabilities?
Club Queretaro win 63%, draw 22%, Puebla win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Club Queretaro vs Puebla?
Club Queretaro 1–0 Puebla is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Club Queretaro vs Puebla?
Club Queretaro 1.95, Puebla 0.83 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Club Queretaro vs Puebla?
Monday 9 November 2026, 01:00 WAT, at Estadio La Corregidora – Liga MX.