- λ home
- 2.33
- λ away
- 0.90
- Σλ total
- 3.23
- P(over 2.5)
- 61%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 2–0 10.8%
Lazio vs Lecce prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Lazio 69% · draw 18% · Lecce 13%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Lazio v Lecce: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Lazio v Lecce are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (19 and 18 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio (home) | 1.55 | 1.31 | 1.21 | 2.45 |
| Lecce (away) | 1.43 | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.94 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.55 × 1.31 × 1.21 ≈ 2.45
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.39 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.09 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.12 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.23 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.33, λaway = 0.90
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 69.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.8%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 10.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Lazio | 69.9% | 69.0% | 68.7% | 69.2% |
| X Draw | 17.7% | 15.0% | 19.7% | 17.9% |
| 2 Lecce | 12.3% | 16.0% | 11.7% | 12.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.071 → 7.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Lazio | 69.2% | 1.45 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -5.9% | |
| X · Draw | 17.9% | 5.59 | 4.75 | 21.1% | -15.0% | |
| 2 · Lecce | 12.9% | 7.75 | 8.00 | 12.5% | +3.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.1% | 1.15 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -5.9% | |
| X2 | 30.8% | 3.25 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -7.6% | |
| 12 | 82.1% | 1.22 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -3.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Lazio | 84.3% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Lecce | 15.7% | 6.36 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.2% | 1.22 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -3.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.8% | 5.61 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -10.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -3.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.5% | 2.60 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -8.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.2% | 2.55 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -2.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.8% | 1.65 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -7.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +7.1% | |
| BTTS no | 40.5% | 2.47 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -21.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 51.0% | 1.96 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.0% | 2.86 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.1% | 7.11 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.595 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.071 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.089 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Lazio | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWWWWW | DLLLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Lazio at 69%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Lazio 1st on 29, Lecce 14th on 10.
Form
Lazio, last six: D W W W W W – five wins in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Napoli. Scoring rate: 2.8 per match – well above average.
Lecce have one win from their last six (D L L L W L). Latest: 1–1 away at Torino. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Lazio 2.33 · Lecce 0.90 · total 3.23. High total: over 2.5 61%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 60%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.68. Most probable score: Lazio 2–1 Lecce. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie A table
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League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Lazio vs Lecce?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Lazio v Lecce probabilities?
Lazio win 69%, draw 18%, Lecce win 13%.
What is the most probable score for Lazio vs Lecce?
Lazio 2–1 Lecce is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Lazio vs Lecce?
Lazio 2.33, Lecce 0.90 – over 2.5 at 61%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Lazio vs Lecce?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 15:00 WAT, at Stadio Olimpico – Serie A.