- λ home
- 1.24
- λ away
- 1.54
- Σλ total
- 2.78
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.8%
Lecce vs Genoa prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Lecce v Genoa: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
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How the numbers for Lecce v Genoa are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.78 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 2.78 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.24, λaway = 1.54
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 44.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Lecce | – | 33.0% | 28.3% | 31.0% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 30.7% | 23.9% |
| 2 Genoa | – | 48.0% | 40.9% | 45.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.085 → 8.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Lecce | 31.0% | 3.22 | 3.25 | 30.8% | +0.9% | |
| X · Draw | 23.9% | 4.18 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -28.2% | |
| 2 · Genoa | 45.0% | 2.22 | 2.25 | 44.4% | +1.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 55.0% | 1.82 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -13.7% | |
| X2 | 69.0% | 1.45 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -8.3% | |
| 12 | 76.1% | 1.31 | 1.36 | 73.5% | +3.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Lecce | 40.8% | 2.45 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Genoa | 59.2% | 1.69 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.5% | 4.26 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 52.6% | 1.90 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 47.4% | 2.11 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 30.4% | 3.29 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.6% | 1.71 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +14.3% | |
| BTTS no | 41.4% | 2.42 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -25.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.0% | 3.99 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.4% | 2.42 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 33.6% | 2.98 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.586 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.143 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.150 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Lecce | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWLLW | WWLWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Genoa narrowly ahead at 45%; Lecce 31%. Standings: Lecce 14th on 10, Genoa 13th on 13.
Form
Sequence for Lecce: L L W L L W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–5 away at Frosinone. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.3 conceded.
Genoa have three wins from their last six (W W L W L L). Latest: 2–0 at home to Juventus. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Lecce 1–0 Genoa. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Lecce 1.24 · Genoa 1.54 · total 2.78. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.71. Most probable score: Lecce 1–2 Genoa. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 24 May 2026Lecce1–0Genoa
Serie A table
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League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Lecce vs Genoa?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the Lecce v Genoa probabilities?
Lecce win 31%, draw 24%, Genoa win 45%.
What is the most probable score for Lecce vs Genoa?
Lecce 1–2 Genoa is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Lecce vs Genoa?
Lecce 1.24, Genoa 1.54 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Lecce vs Genoa?
Sunday 1 November 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Stadio Via del Mare – Serie A.