- λ home
- 0.83
- λ away
- 1.98
- Σλ total
- 2.81
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 0–1 11.9%
Torino vs Como prediction & xG model: Como to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Torino v Como: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipComo to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Torino v Como are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino (home) | 1.55 | 0.94 | 0.64 | 0.93 |
| Como (away) | 1.43 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.56 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.55 × 0.94 × 0.64 ≈ 0.93
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.49 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.81 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.81 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.83, λaway = 1.98
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 14.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 64.5%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 11.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Torino | 22.1% | 11.0% | 21.2% | 15.3% |
| X Draw | 26.8% | 15.0% | 26.3% | 19.7% |
| 2 Como | 51.1% | 74.0% | 52.5% | 65.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.088 → 8.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Torino | 15.3% | 6.54 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -33.8% | |
| X · Draw | 19.7% | 5.07 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -31.0% | |
| 2 · Como pick | 65.0% | 1.54 | 1.75 | 57.1% | +13.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 35.0% | 2.86 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -30.0% | |
| X2 | 84.7% | 1.18 | 1.20 | 83.3% | +1.6% | |
| 12 | 80.3% | 1.25 | 1.29 | 77.5% | +3.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Torino | 19.1% | 5.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Como | 80.9% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.1% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.9% | 4.36 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.3% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.7% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.0% | 3.22 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 69.0% | 1.45 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -6.6% | |
| BTTS no | 44.1% | 2.27 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -5.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 14.7% | 6.79 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.0% | 2.56 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 46.2% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.650 × 1.75 − 1 = +0.137 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.183 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Torino | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWDLW | WWWLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Como favoured on the road at 65% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Torino 11th on 14, Como 5th on 23.
Form
Torino have four wins from their last six (W W W D L W). Latest: 3–2 at home to Monza. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Sequence for Como: W W W L D L, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–0 at home to Sassuolo. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Torino 0.83 · Como 1.98 · total 2.81. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Como to win, probability 65%, odds 1.75 v fair 1.54. Most probable score: Torino 0–1 Como. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie A table
League page →
More Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Torino vs Como?
The Model pick is Como to win with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.75 by the bookmakers.
What are the Torino v Como probabilities?
Torino win 15%, draw 20%, Como win 65%.
What is the most probable score for Torino vs Como?
Torino 0–1 Como is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Torino vs Como?
Torino 0.83, Como 1.98 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Torino vs Como?
Tuesday 27 October 2026, 20:45 WAT, at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino – Serie A.