- λ home
- 2.26
- λ away
- 0.95
- Σλ total
- 3.21
- P(over 2.5)
- 62%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 2–0 10.3%
Como vs Sassuolo prediction & xG model: Como to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Como v Sassuolo: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipComo to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Como v Sassuolo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.21 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 3.21 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.26, λaway = 0.95
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 66.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 14.5%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 10.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Como | – | 67.0% | 63.3% | 65.4% |
| X Draw | – | 22.0% | 21.0% | 21.6% |
| 2 Sassuolo | – | 11.0% | 15.7% | 13.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.098 → 9.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Como pick | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -5.8% | |
| X · Draw | 21.6% | 4.63 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -6.5% | |
| 2 · Sassuolo | 13.0% | 7.71 | 5.80 | 17.2% | -24.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.0% | 1.15 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -0.8% | |
| X2 | 34.6% | 2.89 | 2.45 | 40.8% | -15.3% | |
| 12 | 78.4% | 1.28 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -4.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Como | 83.4% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sassuolo | 16.6% | 6.04 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.0% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.0% | 5.89 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 37.8% | 2.65 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 40.0% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.1% | 1.69 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -7.3% | |
| BTTS no | 40.9% | 2.44 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -2.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 49.1% | 2.04 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.6% | 2.81 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.3% | 6.55 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.654 × 1.44 − 1 = -0.058 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Como | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLDLW | LDLWDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Como 65% to win. Standings: Como 5th on 23, Sassuolo 17th on 8.
Form
Sequence for Como: W W L D L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 4–1 at home to Manchester United. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Sassuolo, last six: L D L W D D – one win in total. Latest: 2–4 away at Frosinone. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Sassuolo 2–1 Como. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Como 2.26 · Sassuolo 0.95 · total 3.21. Goals expected – 62% for over 2.5 and 59% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Como to win, probability 65%, odds 1.44 v fair 1.53. Most probable score: Como 2–0 Sassuolo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 17 Apr 2026Sassuolo2–1Como
Serie A table
League page →
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League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Como vs Sassuolo?
The Model pick is Como to win with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.44 by the bookmakers.
What are the Como v Sassuolo probabilities?
Como win 65%, draw 22%, Sassuolo win 13%.
What is the most probable score for Como vs Sassuolo?
Como 2–0 Sassuolo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Como vs Sassuolo?
Como 2.26, Sassuolo 0.95 – over 2.5 at 62%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Como vs Sassuolo?
Saturday 24 October 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia – Serie A.