- λ home
- 2.07
- λ away
- 0.83
- Σλ total
- 2.90
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 2–0 11.8%
Atalanta vs Venezia prediction & xG model: Atalanta to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Atalanta v Venezia: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipAtalanta to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Atalanta v Venezia are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (18 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta (home) | 1.55 | 1.01 | 1.09 | 1.72 |
| Venezia (away) | 1.43 | 0.67 | 1.13 | 1.09 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.55 × 1.01 × 1.09 ≈ 1.72
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.80 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.90 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.90 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.07, λaway = 0.83
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 66.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.9%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 11.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Atalanta | 51.3% | 71.0% | 60.7% | 66.7% |
| X Draw | 25.0% | 16.0% | 23.2% | 19.0% |
| 2 Venezia | 23.6% | 13.0% | 16.0% | 14.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.076 → 7.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Atalanta pick | 66.7% | 1.50 | 1.53 | 65.4% | +2.0% | |
| X · Draw | 19.0% | 5.25 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -23.8% | |
| 2 · Venezia | 14.3% | 7.01 | 5.80 | 17.2% | -17.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.7% | 1.17 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -4.0% | |
| X2 | 33.3% | 3.00 | 2.45 | 40.8% | -18.4% | |
| 12 | 81.0% | 1.24 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -1.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Atalanta | 82.4% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Venezia | 17.6% | 5.67 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.5% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.5% | 4.66 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.80 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.6% | 2.24 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.0% | 3.03 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -8.0% | |
| BTTS no | 43.2% | 2.31 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -2.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 47.8% | 2.09 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.0% | 2.63 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.2% | 7.02 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.667 × 1.53 − 1 = +0.020 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.038 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Atalanta | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLWWW | LLLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 0-0-6 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Atalanta 67% to win. Standings: Atalanta 12th on 14, Venezia 19th on 6.
Form
Atalanta have three wins from their last six (L L L W W W). Latest: 0–2 away at Juventus. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Venezia, last six: L L L L L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 0–2 at home to Lazio. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Atalanta 2.07 · Venezia 0.83 · total 2.90. Goals expected – 55% for over 2.5 and 57% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Atalanta to win, probability 67%, odds 1.53 v fair 1.50. Most probable score: Atalanta 2–0 Venezia. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie A table
League page →
More Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Atalanta vs Venezia?
The Model pick is Atalanta to win with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.53 by the bookmakers.
What are the Atalanta v Venezia probabilities?
Atalanta win 67%, draw 19%, Venezia win 14%.
What is the most probable score for Atalanta vs Venezia?
Atalanta 2–0 Venezia is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Atalanta vs Venezia?
Atalanta 2.07, Venezia 0.83 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Atalanta vs Venezia?
Monday 12 October 2026, 17:30 WAT, at New Balance Arena – Serie A.