- λ home
- 1.08
- λ away
- 1.17
- Σλ total
- 2.25
- P(over 2.5)
- 39%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.3%
Parma vs Genoa prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Parma v Genoa: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Parma v Genoa are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.25 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 2.25 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.08, λaway = 1.17
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 33.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Parma | – | 39.0% | 30.7% | 35.5% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 31.7% | 24.4% |
| 2 Genoa | – | 42.0% | 37.6% | 40.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.086 → 8.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Parma | 35.5% | 2.82 | 3.00 | 33.3% | +6.5% | |
| X · Draw | 24.4% | 4.11 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -29.4% | |
| 2 · Genoa | 40.1% | 2.49 | 2.45 | 40.8% | -1.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.9% | 1.67 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -10.2% | |
| X2 | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -12.3% | |
| 12 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.36 | 73.5% | +2.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Parma | 46.9% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Genoa | 53.1% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 65.7% | 1.52 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 34.3% | 2.92 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 39.1% | 2.56 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 19.1% | 5.25 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 80.9% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 51.1% | 1.96 | 2.00 | 50.0% | +2.1% | |
| BTTS no | 48.9% | 2.04 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -14.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.2% | 3.97 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.8% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.0% | 3.58 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.511 × 2.00 − 1 = +0.021 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.021 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.5% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Parma | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLLLW | WDLLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 36 / 24 / 40% for home, draw, away. Standings: Parma 16th on 8, Genoa 13th on 13.
Form
Sequence for Parma: L D L L L W, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–2 away at Como. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Genoa, last six: W D L L L W – two wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Sudtirol. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Parma 1.08 · Genoa 1.17 · total 2.25. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 39%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 51%, odds 2.00 v fair 1.96. Most probable score: Parma 1–2 Genoa. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie A table
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League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Parma vs Genoa?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 51, priced around 2.00 by the bookmakers.
What are the Parma v Genoa probabilities?
Parma win 36%, draw 24%, Genoa win 40%.
What is the most probable score for Parma vs Genoa?
Parma 1–2 Genoa is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Parma vs Genoa?
Parma 1.08, Genoa 1.17 – over 2.5 at 39%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Parma vs Genoa?
Sunday 20 September 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Stadio Ennio Tardini – Serie A.