- λ home
- 1.92
- λ away
- 2.08
- Σλ total
- 4.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 76%
- P(BTTS)
- 69%
- Modal score
- 1–2 7.6%
Monza vs Sassuolo prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Monza v Sassuolo: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Monza v Sassuolo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 23 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza (home) | 1.55 | 1.02 | 1.33 | 2.12 |
| Sassuolo (away) | 1.43 | 0.99 | 1.34 | 1.90 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.55 × 1.02 × 1.33 ≈ 2.12
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.02 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.00 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 4.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.92, λaway = 2.08
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 36.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 42.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 7.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Monza | 43.7% | 39.0% | 32.6% | 36.3% |
| X Draw | 21.2% | 17.0% | 27.7% | 21.5% |
| 2 Sassuolo | 35.1% | 44.0% | 39.7% | 42.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.095 → 9.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Monza | 36.3% | 2.75 | 2.80 | 35.7% | +1.7% | |
| X · Draw | 21.5% | 4.65 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -29.1% | |
| 2 · Sassuolo | 42.2% | 2.37 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -2.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 57.8% | 1.73 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -7.5% | |
| X2 | 63.7% | 1.57 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -13.4% | |
| 12 | 78.5% | 1.27 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +2.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Monza | 46.3% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sassuolo | 53.7% | 1.86 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 90.8% | 1.10 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 9.2% | 10.92 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 76.2% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 23.8% | 4.20 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 56.7% | 1.77 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 43.3% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 68.6% | 1.46 | 1.62 | 61.7% | +11.1% | |
| BTTS no | 31.4% | 3.19 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -29.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.5% | 3.18 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.3% | 3.00 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 35.2% | 2.84 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.686 × 1.62 − 1 = +0.111 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.180 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Monza | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDWLLW | WDDWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Monza 36%, draw 21%, Sassuolo 42%. Standings: Monza 18th on 7, Sassuolo 17th on 8.
Form
Monza have two wins from their last six (L D W L L W). Latest: 2–3 away at Lecce. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Sassuolo have three wins from their last six (W D D W L W). Latest: 3–2 at home to Juventus. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Monza 1.92 · Sassuolo 2.08 · total 4.00. Goals expected – 76% for over 2.5 and 69% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 69%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.46. Most probable score: Monza 1–2 Sassuolo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie A table
League page →
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Monza vs Sassuolo?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 69, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Monza v Sassuolo probabilities?
Monza win 36%, draw 21%, Sassuolo win 42%.
What is the most probable score for Monza vs Sassuolo?
Monza 1–2 Sassuolo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Monza vs Sassuolo?
Monza 1.92, Sassuolo 2.08 – over 2.5 at 76%, BTTS at 69%.
What time is Monza vs Sassuolo?
Friday 18 September 2026, 19:45 WAT, at U-Power Stadium – Serie A.