- λ home
- 1.31
- λ away
- 0.36
- Σλ total
- 1.67
- P(over 2.5)
- 23%
- P(BTTS)
- 43%
- Modal score
- 1–0 24.7%
Atalanta vs Cagliari prediction & xG model: Atalanta to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Atalanta v Cagliari: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipAtalanta to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Atalanta v Cagliari are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 1.67 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 1.67 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.31, λaway = 0.36
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 61.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 10.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 24.7%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Atalanta | – | 68.0% | 57.4% | 63.6% |
| X Draw | – | 24.0% | 24.2% | 24.1% |
| 2 Cagliari | – | 8.0% | 18.4% | 12.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.088 → 8.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Atalanta pick | 63.6% | 1.57 | 1.60 | 62.5% | +1.7% | |
| X · Draw | 24.1% | 4.15 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -8.5% | |
| 2 · Cagliari | 12.4% | 8.09 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -38.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.6% | 1.14 | 1.15 | 87.0% | +0.8% | |
| X2 | 36.4% | 2.74 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -16.2% | |
| 12 | 75.9% | 1.32 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -5.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Atalanta | 83.7% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Cagliari | 16.3% | 6.14 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 49.7% | 2.01 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 23.5% | 4.26 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 8.9% | 11.27 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 91.1% | 1.10 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 42.7% | 2.34 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -18.4% | |
| BTTS no | 57.3% | 1.75 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +6.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.0% | 2.56 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 52.4% | 1.91 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 8.5% | 11.71 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.636 × 1.60 − 1 = +0.017 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.028 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.7% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Atalanta | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWWDW | WLLWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 17% |
| BTTS | 33% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Atalanta at 64%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Atalanta 12th on 14, Cagliari 9th on 16.
Form
Atalanta have four wins from their last six (L W W W D W). Latest: 1–2 away at AS Roma. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Cagliari, last six: W L L W W D – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Lecce. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Cagliari 3–2 Atalanta. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Atalanta 1.31 · Cagliari 0.36 · total 1.67. Low total: under 2.5 77%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Atalanta to win, probability 64%, odds 1.60 v fair 1.57. Most probable score: Atalanta 1–0 Cagliari. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 27 Apr 2026Cagliari3–2Atalanta
Serie A table
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League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Atalanta vs Cagliari?
The Model pick is Atalanta to win with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.60 by the bookmakers.
What are the Atalanta v Cagliari probabilities?
Atalanta win 64%, draw 24%, Cagliari win 12%.
What is the most probable score for Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Atalanta 1–0 Cagliari is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Atalanta 1.31, Cagliari 0.36 – over 2.5 at 23%, BTTS at 43%.
What time is Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:45 WAT, at New Balance Arena – Serie A.