- λ home
- 0.68
- λ away
- 1.52
- Σλ total
- 2.19
- P(over 2.5)
- 40%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 0–1 16.9%
Genoa vs Como prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Genoa v Como: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–4
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Genoa v Como are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.36 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.19 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.68, λaway = 1.52
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 16.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 57.5%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 16.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Genoa | – | 15.0% | 19.2% | 16.8% |
| X Draw | – | 23.0% | 29.1% | 25.6% |
| 2 Como | – | 62.0% | 51.7% | 57.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.074 → 7.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Genoa | 16.8% | 5.97 | 4.85 | 20.6% | -18.7% | |
| X · Draw | 25.6% | 3.91 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -18.2% | |
| 2 · Como | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +3.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 42.3% | 2.36 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -17.5% | |
| X2 | 83.2% | 1.20 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -2.6% | |
| 12 | 74.4% | 1.34 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -4.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Genoa | 22.5% | 4.44 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Como | 77.5% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -7.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 34.6% | 2.89 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -3.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39.7% | 2.52 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -10.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 60.3% | 1.66 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -2.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20.2% | 4.94 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -15.0% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 79.8% | 1.25 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -2.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.4% | 1.95 | 2.05 | 48.8% | +5.4% | |
| BTTS no | 48.6% | 2.06 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -15.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 14.5% | 6.89 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.0% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 39.4% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.798 × 1.22 − 1 = -0.027 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Genoa | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWLLW | WDDDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-0-4 | 3-3-0 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Como narrowly ahead at 58%; Genoa 17%. Standings: Genoa 13th on 13, Como 5th on 23.
Form
Genoa have two wins from their last six (L L W L L W). Latest: 0–1 away at Lazio. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.5 conceded.
Sequence for Como: W D D D W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–1 away at Napoli. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Genoa 0–2 Como. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Genoa 0.68 · Como 1.52 · total 2.19. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 80%, odds 1.22 v fair 1.25. Most probable score: Genoa 0–1 Como. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 26 Apr 2026Genoa0–2Como
Serie A table
League page →
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Genoa vs Como?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 80, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
What are the Genoa v Como probabilities?
Genoa win 17%, draw 26%, Como win 58%.
What is the most probable score for Genoa vs Como?
Genoa 0–1 Como is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Genoa vs Como?
Genoa 0.68, Como 1.52 – over 2.5 at 40%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Genoa vs Como?
Friday 4 September 2026, 19:45 WAT, at Stadio Luigi Ferraris – Serie A.