- λ home
- 1.44
- λ away
- 0.56
- Σλ total
- 2.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 32%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 1–0 19.4%
Cagliari vs Lecce prediction & xG model: Cagliari or draw
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Cagliari v Lecce: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipCagliari or draw✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Cagliari v Lecce are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.00 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 2.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.44, λaway = 0.56
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 58.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 14.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 19.4%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Cagliari | – | 70.0% | 47.0% | 60.3% |
| X Draw | – | 19.0% | 29.5% | 23.4% |
| 2 Lecce | – | 11.0% | 23.5% | 16.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.092 → 9.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Cagliari | 60.3% | 1.66 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +17.6% | |
| X · Draw | 23.4% | 4.27 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -27.4% | |
| 2 · Lecce | 16.2% | 6.16 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -36.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X pick | 83.8% | 1.19 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +4.7% | |
| X2 | 39.7% | 2.52 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -30.6% | |
| 12 | 76.6% | 1.31 | 1.36 | 73.5% | +4.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Cagliari | 78.8% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Lecce | 21.2% | 4.71 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 40.6% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 32.3% | 3.09 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 14.3% | 7.00 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 85.7% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 50.0% | 2.00 | 2.05 | 48.8% | +2.4% | |
| BTTS no | 50.0% | 2.00 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -12.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.2% | 2.55 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 48.2% | 2.07 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.6% | 7.96 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.838 × 1.25 − 1 = +0.047 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.188 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Cagliari | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWWDD | LWLWDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Cagliari 60% to win. Standings: Cagliari 9th on 16, Lecce 14th on 10.
Form
Cagliari have two wins from their last six (L L W W D D). Latest: 1–2 at home to Hellas Verona. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Lecce: L W L W D L, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–4 at home to AS Roma. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Head to head
Last meeting (Feb 2026): Cagliari 0–2 Lecce. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Cagliari 1.44 · Lecce 0.56 · total 2.00. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 68%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Cagliari or draw, probability 84%, odds 1.25 v fair 1.19. Most probable score: Cagliari 1–0 Lecce. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 16 Feb 2026Cagliari0–2Lecce
Serie A table
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League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Cagliari vs Lecce?
The Model pick is Cagliari or draw with a model probability of 84, priced around 1.25 by the bookmakers.
What are the Cagliari v Lecce probabilities?
Cagliari win 60%, draw 23%, Lecce win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Cagliari vs Lecce?
Cagliari 1–0 Lecce is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Cagliari vs Lecce?
Cagliari 1.44, Lecce 0.56 – over 2.5 at 32%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is Cagliari vs Lecce?
Monday 7 September 2026, 17:30 WAT, at Unipol Domus – Serie A.