- λ home
- 0.68
- λ away
- 2.55
- Σλ total
- 3.23
- P(over 2.5)
- 67%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 0–2 12.8%
Deportivo Pasto vs Junior prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Deportivo Pasto v Junior: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Deportivo Pasto v Junior are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (35 and 43 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pasto (home) | 1.66 | 0.69 | 0.94 | 1.09 |
| Junior (away) | 1.38 | 1.07 | 1.09 | 1.60 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.69 × 0.94 ≈ 1.09
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.69 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.64 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.73 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.23 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.68, λaway = 2.55
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 7.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 14.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 77.8%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 12.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Deportivo Pasto | 25.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% |
| X Draw | 26.2% | 20.0% | 12.2% | 16.7% |
| 2 Junior | 48.4% | 73.0% | 81.7% | 76.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.093 → 9.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Deportivo Pasto | 6.6% | 15.10 | 15.00 | 6.7% | -0.7% | |
| X · Draw | 16.7% | 5.98 | 7.50 | 13.3% | +25.4% | |
| 2 · Junior | 76.7% | 1.30 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -14.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 23.3% | 4.28 | 6.00 | 16.7% | +40.1% | |
| X2 | 93.4% | 1.07 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -3.8% | |
| 12 | 83.3% | 1.20 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -8.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Deportivo Pasto | 8.0% | 12.58 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Junior | 92.0% | 1.09 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.8% | 1.29 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +1.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.2% | 4.51 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -24.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67.3% | 1.49 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -10.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 32.7% | 3.06 | 3.40 | 29.4% | +11.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.6% | 2.97 | 3.50 | 28.6% | +17.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 66.4% | 1.51 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -15.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 53.3% | 1.87 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -4.0% | |
| BTTS no | 46.7% | 2.14 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -10.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 9.9% | 10.13 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.0% | 3.03 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 57.1% | 1.75 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.533 × 1.80 − 1 = -0.040 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Deportivo Pasto | Junior |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWLLD | WLDWDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% |
| BTTS | 17% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Junior 77%, Deportivo Pasto 7%. Standings: Deportivo Pasto 18th on 15, Junior 14th on 22.
Form
Sequence for Deportivo Pasto: L L W L L D, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–5 away at Santa Fe. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.3 per match.
Sequence for Junior: W L D W D D, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–0 at home to Cucuta. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Junior 4–3 Deportivo Pasto. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Deportivo Pasto 0.68 · Junior 2.55 · total 3.23. Goals expected – 67% for over 2.5 and 53% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 53%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.87. Most probable score: Deportivo Pasto 1–2 Junior. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 3 May 2026Junior4–3Deportivo Pasto
Primera A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atletico Nacional | 19 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 |  Junior | 19 | +7 | 35 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Pasto | 19 | +4 | 34 |
| 4 |  America de Cali | 19 | +10 | 33 |
| 5 |  Once Caldas | 19 | +9 | 33 |
| 6 |  Deportes Tolima | 19 | +10 | 31 |
| 7 |  Santa Fe | 19 | +7 | 29 |
| 8 |  Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 |  Deportivo Cali | 19 | +4 | 27 |
| 10 |  Millonarios | 19 | +8 | 26 |
| 11 |  Independiente Medellin | 19 | +2 | 26 |
| 12 |  Águilas Doradas | 19 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 |  Bucaramanga | 19 | +6 | 23 |
| 14 |  Llaneros | 19 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 |  Fortaleza FC | 19 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 |  Jaguares | 19 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 |  Alianza Valledupar | 19 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 |  Chico | 19 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 |  Cucuta | 19 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 |  Deportivo Pereira | 19 | -17 | 10 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Deportivo Pasto vs Junior?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 53, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Deportivo Pasto v Junior probabilities?
Deportivo Pasto win 7%, draw 17%, Junior win 77%.
What is the most probable score for Deportivo Pasto vs Junior?
Deportivo Pasto 1–2 Junior is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Deportivo Pasto vs Junior?
Deportivo Pasto 0.68, Junior 2.55 – over 2.5 at 67%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Deportivo Pasto vs Junior?
Thursday 12 November 2026, 22:00 WAT, at Estadio Departamental Libertad – Primera A.