- λ home
- 1.37
- λ away
- 1.23
- Σλ total
- 2.60
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.5%
Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Águilas Doradas v Independiente Medellin: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Águilas Doradas v Independiente Medellin are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (29 and 47 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Águilas Doradas (home) | 1.66 | 0.90 | 0.88 | 1.32 |
| Independiente Medellin (away) | 1.38 | 1.14 | 0.82 | 1.29 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.90 × 0.88 ≈ 1.32
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.61 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.58 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.60 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.37, λaway = 1.23
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 40.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 33.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Águilas Doradas | 36.8% | 45.0% | 38.2% | 42.1% |
| X Draw | 27.6% | 18.0% | 28.4% | 22.4% |
| 2 Independiente Medellin | 35.6% | 37.0% | 33.4% | 35.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.068 → 6.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Águilas Doradas | 42.1% | 2.37 | 2.45 | 40.8% | +3.3% | |
| X · Draw | 22.4% | 4.47 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -26.2% | |
| 2 · Independiente Medellin | 35.5% | 2.82 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -0.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -9.7% | |
| X2 | 57.9% | 1.73 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -11.5% | |
| 12 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +3.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Águilas Doradas | 54.3% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Independiente Medellin | 45.7% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.3% | 1.36 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -6.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.7% | 3.74 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -6.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.5% | 2.06 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -5.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -4.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.1% | 3.70 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -8.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -5.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.8% | 1.79 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -3.4% | |
| BTTS no | 44.2% | 2.26 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -11.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.5% | 3.28 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.1% | 2.32 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 26.4% | 3.78 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.558 × 1.73 − 1 = -0.034 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Águilas Doradas | Independiente Medellin |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWLWD | WWLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 83% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 42 / 22 / 36% for home, draw, away. Standings: Águilas Doradas 11th on 25, Independiente Medellin 6th on 32.
Form
Águilas Doradas, last six: L W W L W D – three wins in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Once Caldas. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded.
Independiente Medellin, last six: W W L L L L – two wins in total. Latest: 3–0 away at Fortaleza FC. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Águilas Doradas 1.37 · Independiente Medellin 1.23 · total 2.60. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.79. Most probable score: Águilas Doradas 2–1 Independiente Medellin. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Primera A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atletico Nacional | 19 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 |  Junior | 19 | +7 | 35 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Pasto | 19 | +4 | 34 |
| 4 |  America de Cali | 19 | +10 | 33 |
| 5 |  Once Caldas | 19 | +9 | 33 |
| 6 |  Deportes Tolima | 19 | +10 | 31 |
| 7 |  Santa Fe | 19 | +7 | 29 |
| 8 |  Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 |  Deportivo Cali | 19 | +4 | 27 |
| 10 |  Millonarios | 19 | +8 | 26 |
| 11 |  Independiente Medellin | 19 | +2 | 26 |
| 12 |  Águilas Doradas | 19 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 |  Bucaramanga | 19 | +6 | 23 |
| 14 |  Llaneros | 19 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 |  Fortaleza FC | 19 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 |  Jaguares | 19 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 |  Alianza Valledupar | 19 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 |  Chico | 19 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 |  Cucuta | 19 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 |  Deportivo Pereira | 19 | -17 | 10 |
More Primera A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Águilas Doradas v Independiente Medellin probabilities?
Águilas Doradas win 42%, draw 22%, Independiente Medellin win 36%.
What is the most probable score for Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin?
Águilas Doradas 2–1 Independiente Medellin is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin?
Águilas Doradas 1.37, Independiente Medellin 1.23 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 21:30 WAT, at Estadio Cincuentenario – Primera A.