- λ home
- 1.45
- λ away
- 1.45
- Σλ total
- 2.90
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 64%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.6%
Sport Huancayo vs Universitario prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Sport Huancayo v Universitario: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Sport Huancayo v Universitario are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (24 and 26 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Huancayo (home) | 1.74 | 1.13 | 1.01 | 1.99 |
| Universitario (away) | 1.11 | 1.33 | 0.88 | 1.30 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.74 × 1.13 × 1.01 ≈ 1.99
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.29 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.94 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.87 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.90 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.45, λaway = 1.45
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 37.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sport Huancayo | 52.6% | 38.0% | 40.9% | 39.2% |
| X Draw | 22.7% | 17.0% | 27.1% | 21.2% |
| 2 Universitario | 24.7% | 45.0% | 32.0% | 39.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.086 → 8.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sport Huancayo | 39.2% | 2.55 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -11.7% | |
| X · Draw | 21.2% | 4.71 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -27.8% | |
| 2 · Universitario | 39.5% | 2.53 | 2.88 | 34.7% | +13.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 60.5% | 1.65 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -15.3% | |
| X2 | 60.8% | 1.65 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -1.6% | |
| 12 | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +2.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sport Huancayo | 49.8% | 2.01 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Universitario | 50.2% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -5.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.4% | 4.46 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -10.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -4.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.0% | 2.22 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -6.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.4% | 3.00 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -8.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 66.6% | 1.50 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -6.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 64.2% | 1.56 | 1.57 | 63.7% | +0.7% | |
| BTTS no | 35.8% | 2.79 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -19.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.7% | 3.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.5% | 2.47 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.8% | 3.35 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.642 × 1.57 − 1 = +0.007 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.013 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.3% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sport Huancayo | Universitario |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLWWW | DDWWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 3-3-0 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 2.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Sport Huancayo 39%, draw 21%, Universitario 40%. Standings: Sport Huancayo 1st on 34, Universitario 3rd on 32.
Form
Sport Huancayo, last six: W W L W W W – five wins in total. Latest: 2–1 away at Cienciano. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Sequence for Universitario: D D W W W D, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to UCV Moquegua. 2.7 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Universitario 2–1 Sport Huancayo. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sport Huancayo 1.45 · Universitario 1.45 · total 2.90. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 55%, BTTS 64%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 64%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.56. Most probable score: Sport Huancayo 1–2 Universitario. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 31 May 2026Universitario2–1Sport Huancayo
Primera División table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alianza Lima | 33 | +30 | 69 |
| 2 |  Universitario | 33 | +20 | 61 |
| 3 |  FBC Melgar | 33 | +18 | 57 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Garcilaso | 33 | +15 | 55 |
| 5 |  Sporting Cristal | 33 | +15 | 51 |
| 6 |  Cusco | 33 | -1 | 51 |
| 7 |  Cienciano | 33 | +8 | 50 |
| 8 |  Sport Huancayo | 33 | -1 | 50 |
| 9 |  Alianza Atletico | 33 | +1 | 49 |
| 10 |  Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 33 | -12 | 48 |
| 11 |  Sport Boys | 33 | +2 | 42 |
| 12 |  Juan Pablo II College | 33 | -11 | 41 |
| 13 |  Comerciantes Unidos | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 14 |  Atletico Grau | 33 | -9 | 37 |
| 15 |  ADT | 33 | -12 | 31 |
| 16 |  UCV Moquegua | 33 | -21 | 30 |
| 17 |  FC Cajamarca | 33 | -19 | 29 |
| 18 |  UTC Cajamarca | 33 | -20 | 14 |
More Primera División predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sport Huancayo vs Universitario?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sport Huancayo v Universitario probabilities?
Sport Huancayo win 39%, draw 21%, Universitario win 40%.
What is the most probable score for Sport Huancayo vs Universitario?
Sport Huancayo 1–2 Universitario is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sport Huancayo vs Universitario?
Sport Huancayo 1.45, Universitario 1.45 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 64%.
What time is Sport Huancayo vs Universitario?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 22:00 WAT, at Estadio Huancayo – Primera División.