- λ home
- 1.54
- λ away
- 1.01
- Σλ total
- 2.55
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.1%
Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Comerciantes Unidos 53% · draw 24% · Sport Boys 23%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Comerciantes Unidos v Sport Boys: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Comerciantes Unidos v Sport Boys are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (26 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comerciantes Unidos (home) | 1.74 | 1.02 | 0.78 | 1.38 |
| Sport Boys (away) | 1.11 | 0.87 | 1.03 | 1.00 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.74 × 1.02 × 0.78 ≈ 1.38
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.38 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.55 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.80 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.55 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.54, λaway = 1.01
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 49.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 24.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Comerciantes Unidos | 44.8% | 65.0% | 53.0% | 52.9% |
| X Draw | 28.6% | 17.0% | 25.1% | 24.4% |
| 2 Sport Boys | 26.6% | 18.0% | 22.0% | 22.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.085 → 8.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Comerciantes Unidos | 52.9% | 1.89 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -7.9% | |
| X · Draw | 24.4% | 4.10 | 3.68 | 27.2% | -10.2% | |
| 2 · Sport Boys | 22.7% | 4.41 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -4.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -8.7% | |
| X2 | 47.1% | 2.13 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -7.8% | |
| 12 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -7.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Comerciantes Unidos | 70.0% | 1.43 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sport Boys | 30.0% | 3.34 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.5% | 1.36 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -11.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.5% | 3.77 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -5.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 2.00 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -12.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | 1.98 | 50.5% | -0.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.1% | 3.43 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -20.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.9% | 1.41 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -4.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.4% | 1.68 | 1.70 | 58.8% | +0.9% | |
| BTTS no | 40.6% | 2.46 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -18.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 36.0% | 2.78 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.2% | 2.32 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 20.8% | 4.80 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.594 × 1.70 − 1 = +0.009 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.013 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.3% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Comerciantes Unidos | Sport Boys |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDDWLD | DDWWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-4-1 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Comerciantes Unidos ahead at 53%, against 23% for Sport Boys and 24% for the draw. Standings: Comerciantes Unidos 13th on 16, Sport Boys 8th on 26.
Form
Sequence for Comerciantes Unidos: D D D W L D, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Deportivo Garcilaso. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Sport Boys have two wins from their last six (D D W W L L). Latest: 0–0 at home to UTC Cajamarca. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Sport Boys 1–0 Comerciantes Unidos. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Comerciantes Unidos 1.54 · Sport Boys 1.01 · total 2.55. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.68. Most probable score: Comerciantes Unidos 2–1 Sport Boys. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 30 May 2026Sport Boys1–0Comerciantes Unidos
Primera División table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alianza Lima | 33 | +30 | 69 |
| 2 |  Universitario | 33 | +20 | 61 |
| 3 |  FBC Melgar | 33 | +18 | 57 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Garcilaso | 33 | +15 | 55 |
| 5 |  Sporting Cristal | 33 | +15 | 51 |
| 6 |  Cusco | 33 | -1 | 51 |
| 7 |  Cienciano | 33 | +8 | 50 |
| 8 |  Sport Huancayo | 33 | -1 | 50 |
| 9 |  Alianza Atletico | 33 | +1 | 49 |
| 10 |  Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 33 | -12 | 48 |
| 11 |  Sport Boys | 33 | +2 | 42 |
| 12 |  Juan Pablo II College | 33 | -11 | 41 |
| 13 |  Comerciantes Unidos | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 14 |  Atletico Grau | 33 | -9 | 37 |
| 15 |  ADT | 33 | -12 | 31 |
| 16 |  UCV Moquegua | 33 | -21 | 30 |
| 17 |  FC Cajamarca | 33 | -19 | 29 |
| 18 |  UTC Cajamarca | 33 | -20 | 14 |
More Primera División predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the Comerciantes Unidos v Sport Boys probabilities?
Comerciantes Unidos win 53%, draw 24%, Sport Boys win 23%.
What is the most probable score for Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys?
Comerciantes Unidos 2–1 Sport Boys is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys?
Comerciantes Unidos 1.54, Sport Boys 1.01 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra – Primera División.