- λ home
- 1.93
- λ away
- 0.74
- Σλ total
- 2.67
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.3%
Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Deportivo Garcilaso v Comerciantes Unidos: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Deportivo Garcilaso v Comerciantes Unidos are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (28 and 26 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Garcilaso (home) | 1.74 | 1.15 | 1.03 | 2.05 |
| Comerciantes Unidos (away) | 1.11 | 1.02 | 0.85 | 0.96 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.74 × 1.15 × 1.03 ≈ 2.05
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.01 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.73 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.67 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.93, λaway = 0.74
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 65.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Deportivo Garcilaso | 61.6% | 70.0% | 60.3% | 65.9% |
| X Draw | 21.6% | 17.0% | 23.7% | 19.8% |
| 2 Comerciantes Unidos | 16.7% | 13.0% | 16.0% | 14.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.084 → 8.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Deportivo Garcilaso | 65.9% | 1.52 | 1.53 | 65.4% | +0.9% | |
| X · Draw | 19.8% | 5.05 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -22.8% | |
| 2 · Comerciantes Unidos | 14.3% | 7.00 | 5.75 | 17.4% | -17.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.7% | 1.17 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -2.3% | |
| X2 | 34.1% | 2.93 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -18.9% | |
| 12 | 80.2% | 1.25 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -2.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Deportivo Garcilaso | 82.2% | 1.22 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Comerciantes Unidos | 17.8% | 5.62 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.5% | 1.36 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -4.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.5% | 3.77 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -9.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.3% | 2.03 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -3.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -6.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.8% | 3.60 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -5.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.2% | 1.39 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -6.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 54.1% | 1.85 | 2.00 | 50.0% | +8.2% | |
| BTTS no | 45.9% | 2.18 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -20.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.3% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.1% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.6% | 7.35 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.541 × 2.00 − 1 = +0.082 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.082 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Deportivo Garcilaso | Comerciantes Unidos |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWLLW | DDWLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Deportivo Garcilaso at 66%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Deportivo Garcilaso 4th on 29, Comerciantes Unidos 13th on 16.
Form
Sequence for Deportivo Garcilaso: W L W L L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 3–2 away at UTC Cajamarca. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average.
Sequence for Comerciantes Unidos: D D W L D L, so one victory in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to ADT. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Comerciantes Unidos 0–0 Deportivo Garcilaso. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Deportivo Garcilaso 1.93 · Comerciantes Unidos 0.74 · total 2.67. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 2.00 v fair 1.85. Most probable score: Deportivo Garcilaso 2–1 Comerciantes Unidos. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 25 May 2026Comerciantes Unidos0–0Deportivo Garcilaso
Primera División table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alianza Lima | 33 | +30 | 69 |
| 2 |  Universitario | 33 | +20 | 61 |
| 3 |  FBC Melgar | 33 | +18 | 57 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Garcilaso | 33 | +15 | 55 |
| 5 |  Sporting Cristal | 33 | +15 | 51 |
| 6 |  Cusco | 33 | -1 | 51 |
| 7 |  Cienciano | 33 | +8 | 50 |
| 8 |  Sport Huancayo | 33 | -1 | 50 |
| 9 |  Alianza Atletico | 33 | +1 | 49 |
| 10 |  Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 33 | -12 | 48 |
| 11 |  Sport Boys | 33 | +2 | 42 |
| 12 |  Juan Pablo II College | 33 | -11 | 41 |
| 13 |  Comerciantes Unidos | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 14 |  Atletico Grau | 33 | -9 | 37 |
| 15 |  ADT | 33 | -12 | 31 |
| 16 |  UCV Moquegua | 33 | -21 | 30 |
| 17 |  FC Cajamarca | 33 | -19 | 29 |
| 18 |  UTC Cajamarca | 33 | -20 | 14 |
More Primera División predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 2.00 by the bookmakers.
What are the Deportivo Garcilaso v Comerciantes Unidos probabilities?
Deportivo Garcilaso win 66%, draw 20%, Comerciantes Unidos win 14%.
What is the most probable score for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Deportivo Garcilaso 2–1 Comerciantes Unidos is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Deportivo Garcilaso 1.93, Comerciantes Unidos 0.74 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Monday 9 November 2026, 00:00 WAT, at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega – Primera División.