- λ home
- 1.35
- λ away
- 2.27
- Σλ total
- 3.62
- P(over 2.5)
- 67%
- P(BTTS)
- 67%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.3%
Clachnacuddin vs Brora Rangers prediction & xG model: Brora Rangers to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Clachnacuddin v Brora Rangers: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBrora Rangers to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Clachnacuddin v Brora Rangers are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (29 and 26 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clachnacuddin (home) | 1.66 | 1.17 | 0.92 | 1.79 |
| Brora Rangers (away) | 1.38 | 1.55 | 0.97 | 2.07 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.17 × 0.92 ≈ 1.79
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.87 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.06 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.26 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.62 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.35, λaway = 2.27
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 22.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 58.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Clachnacuddin | 33.7% | 25.0% | 26.8% | 25.8% |
| X Draw | 21.6% | 5.0% | 23.1% | 12.6% |
| 2 Brora Rangers | 44.7% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 61.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Clachnacuddin | 25.8% | 3.88 | 3.32 | 30.1% | -14.5% | |
| X · Draw | 12.6% | 7.93 | 3.85 | 26.0% | -51.4% | |
| 2 · Brora Rangers pick | 61.6% | 1.62 | 1.78 | 56.2% | +9.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 38.4% | 2.61 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -31.3% | |
| X2 | 74.2% | 1.35 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -9.4% | |
| 12 | 87.4% | 1.14 | 1.16 | 86.2% | +1.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Clachnacuddin | 29.5% | 3.39 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Brora Rangers | 70.5% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 87.7% | 1.14 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 12.3% | 8.10 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 66.7% | 1.50 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -4.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 33.3% | 3.00 | 2.46 | 40.7% | -18.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | 2.18 | 45.9% | -0.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 54.5% | 1.83 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -13.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 66.7% | 1.50 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -4.6% | |
| BTTS no | 33.3% | 3.00 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -16.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 21.4% | 4.66 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.3% | 2.91 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 44.2% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.616 × 1.78 − 1 = +0.097 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.124 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Clachnacuddin | Brora Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLLWW | WDDWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Brora Rangers 62%, Clachnacuddin 26%. Standings: Clachnacuddin 5th on 61, Brora Rangers 1st on 75.
Form
Sequence for Clachnacuddin: W W L L W W, so four victories in six. Latest: 3–1 at home to Strathspey Thistle. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Brora Rangers, last six: W D D W W W – four wins in total. Latest: 4–2 at home to Lossiemouth. Scoring rate: 3.7 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Clachnacuddin 1.35 · Brora Rangers 2.27 · total 3.62. Goals expected – 67% for over 2.5 and 67% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Brora Rangers to win, probability 62%, odds 1.78 v fair 1.62. Most probable score: Clachnacuddin 1–2 Brora Rangers. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Football League Highland League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brora Rangers | 34 | +62 | 75 |
| 2 |  Brechin | 34 | +55 | 74 |
| 3 |  Formartine United | 34 | +38 | 71 |
| 4 |  Fraserburgh | 34 | +36 | 68 |
| 5 |  Clachnacuddin | 34 | +38 | 61 |
| 6 |  Keith | 34 | +5 | 58 |
| 7 |  Banks O' Dee | 34 | +23 | 58 |
| 8 |  Buckie Thistle | 34 | +15 | 53 |
| 9 |  Nairn County | 34 | +4 | 49 |
| 10 |  Turriff United | 34 | +10 | 48 |
| 11 |  Huntly | 34 | +3 | 43 |
| 12 |  Strathspey Thistle | 34 | -34 | 41 |
| 13 |  Forres Mechanics | 34 | -15 | 40 |
| 14 |  Deveronvale | 34 | -41 | 37 |
| 15 |  Inverurie Loco Works | 34 | -19 | 33 |
| 16 |  Wick Academy | 34 | -23 | 28 |
| 17 |  Lossiemouth | 34 | -56 | 17 |
| 18 |  Rothes | 34 | -101 | 7 |
More Football League Highland League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Clachnacuddin vs Brora Rangers?
The Model pick is Brora Rangers to win with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.78 by the bookmakers.
What are the Clachnacuddin v Brora Rangers probabilities?
Clachnacuddin win 26%, draw 13%, Brora Rangers win 62%.
What is the most probable score for Clachnacuddin vs Brora Rangers?
Clachnacuddin 1–2 Brora Rangers is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Clachnacuddin vs Brora Rangers?
Clachnacuddin 1.35, Brora Rangers 2.27 – over 2.5 at 67%, BTTS at 67%.
What time is Clachnacuddin vs Brora Rangers?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 16:00 WAT – Football League Highland League.