Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification Thu 12 Nov 2026 · Stade de la Paix Full time

Ivory Coast

WLWWL

2–1

Half-time 2–1

Gambia

LLWW

74%P(1)16%P(X)10%P(2)

λ home: 2.37
λ away: 0.72
Σλ total: 3.09
P(over 2.5): 58%
P(BTTS): 50%
Modal score: 2–0 12.7%

Ivory Coast vs Gambia prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Ivory Coast v Gambia: how the Arena called it

Full time: 2–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Ivory Coast v Gambia are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (10 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Ivory Coast (home)	1.66	0.99	1.14	–
Gambia (away)	1.38	1.21	0.67	–

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 0.99 × 1.14 ≈ –

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Statistical xG feed	3.25	45%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.96	55%
Blended total λ	3.09	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.37, λ_away = 0.72

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Ivory Coast λ = 2.37

09.3%

122.1%

226.3%

320.7%

412.3%

5+9.2%

Gambia λ = 0.72

048.5%

135.1%

212.7%

33.1%

40.6%

5+0.1%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Ivo \ Gam012345+

04.53.31.2···

1117.82.80.7··

2139.23.30.8··

3107.32.60.6··

46.04.31.6···

5+4.53.21.2···

Σ home-win cells: 74.1%
Σ draw cells: 16.3%
Σ away-win cells: 9.5%
Most probable score: 2–0 · 12.7%

Blending with the market

With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Ivory Coast	–	71.0%	78.8%	74.3%
X Draw	–	17.0%	14.8%	16.1%
2 Gambia	–	12.0%	6.5%	9.7%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.076 → 7.6% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Ivory Coast	74.3%	1.35	1.18	84.7%	-12.4%
X · Draw	16.1%	6.23	6.30	15.9%	+1.1%
2 · Gambia	9.7%	10.32	14.30	7.0%	+38.6%
Double chance
1X	90.3%	1.11	1.03	97.1%	-7.0%
X2	25.7%	3.88	4.45	22.5%	+14.6%
12	83.9%	1.19	1.08	92.6%	-9.3%
Draw no bet
DNB Ivory Coast	88.5%	1.13	–	–	–
DNB Gambia	11.5%	8.66	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	80.0%	1.25	1.15	87.0%	-8.0%
Under 1.5	20.0%	4.99	4.20	23.8%	-15.9%
Over 2.5	58.3%	1.72	1.64	61.0%	-4.4%
Under 2.5	41.7%	2.40	2.16	46.3%	-9.9%
Over 3.5	36.4%	2.75	2.56	39.1%	-6.9%
Under 3.5	63.6%	1.57	1.40	71.4%	-10.9%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	50.1%	2.00	2.40	41.7%	+20.2%
BTTS no	49.9%	2.00	1.51	66.2%	-24.6%
Half-time
HT 1	53.9%	1.86	–	–	–
HT X	34.9%	2.87	–	–	–
HT 2	11.2%	8.93	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability50.1%

Fair odds2.00

Best odds2.40

EV per unit+20.2%

EV = 0.501 × 2.40 − 1 = +0.202 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.144 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Ivory Coast	Gambia
Sequence	LWWLWL	WWLL
Matches	6	4
W-D-L	3-0-3	2-0-2
Points per match	1.50	1.50
Goals for / match	1.33	2.00
Goals against / match	0.83	2.25
Over 2.5	33%	100%
BTTS	33%	100%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	17%	0%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Ivory Coast at 74%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Ivory Coast 2nd on 12, Gambia 3rd on 8.

Form

Ivory Coast, last six: L W W L W L – three wins in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to Cameroon. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Sequence for Gambia: W W L L, so two victories in four. Latest: 4–2 away at Ghana. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Ivory Coast 2.37 · Gambia 0.72 · total 3.09. High total: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 50%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 50%, odds 2.40 v fair 2.00. Most probable score: Ivory Coast 2–1 Gambia. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.