- λ home
- 1.62
- λ away
- 0.89
- Σλ total
- 2.51
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.1%
Vigasio vs FC Obermais prediction & xG model: Vigasio to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Vigasio v FC Obermais: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipVigasio to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Vigasio v FC Obermais are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (10 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vigasio (home) | 1.23 | 1.02 | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| FC Obermais (away) | 1.14 | 1.02 | 1.19 | 1.40 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.23 × 1.02 × 1.00 ≈ 1.25
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.65 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.51 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.52 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.51 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.62, λaway = 0.89
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 54.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 20.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Vigasio | 33.0% | 61.0% | 46.9% | 55.1% |
| X Draw | 27.3% | 21.0% | 27.5% | 23.7% |
| 2 FC Obermais | 39.7% | 18.0% | 25.6% | 21.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.117 → 11.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Vigasio pick | 55.1% | 1.82 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +5.2% | |
| X · Draw | 23.7% | 4.21 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -22.8% | |
| 2 · FC Obermais | 21.2% | 4.72 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -25.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.8% | |
| X2 | 44.9% | 2.23 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -22.3% | |
| 12 | 76.3% | 1.31 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -4.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Vigasio | 72.2% | 1.38 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FC Obermais | 27.8% | 3.60 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.6% | 1.40 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.4% | 3.52 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 46.0% | 2.17 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -5.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -5.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.5% | 4.08 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.5% | 1.33 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 47.7% | 2.10 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 52.3% | 1.91 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 38.9% | 2.57 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.0% | 2.32 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 18.1% | 5.53 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.551 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.052 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.057 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.4% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Vigasio | FC Obermais |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLWLD | WDDDDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 2-4-0 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 17% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Vigasio 55%, draw 24%, FC Obermais 21%.
Form
Vigasio, last six: L L L W L D – one win in total. Latest: 1–4 at home to Legnago Salus. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.2 conceded.
FC Obermais have two wins from their last six (W D D D D W). Latest: 3–1 away at San Luigi. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Vigasio 1.62 · FC Obermais 0.89 · total 2.51. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 48%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Vigasio to win, probability 55%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.82. Most probable score: Vigasio 1–0 FC Obermais. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone C table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cjarlins Muzane | 12 | +14 | 28 |
| 2 |  Luparense | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Sandona | 11 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Clodiense | 11 | +3 | 19 |
| 5 |  Campodarsego | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Mestre | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 7 |  Legnago Salus | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  Este | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Conegliano | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 |  Bassano Virtus | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 |  FC Obermais | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Triestina | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 |  LME | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Altavilla | 11 | +5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Virtus Bolzano | 11 | -16 | 11 |
| 16 |  Calvi Noale | 11 | -4 | 10 |
| 17 |  Schio | 11 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 |  Brian Lignano | 12 | -13 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone C predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Vigasio vs FC Obermais?
The Model pick is Vigasio to win with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the Vigasio v FC Obermais probabilities?
Vigasio win 55%, draw 24%, FC Obermais win 21%.
What is the most probable score for Vigasio vs FC Obermais?
Vigasio 1–0 FC Obermais is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Vigasio vs FC Obermais?
Vigasio 1.62, FC Obermais 0.89 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Vigasio vs FC Obermais?
Sunday 17 May 2026, 15:00 WAT – Serie D Girone C.