- λ home
- 1.39
- λ away
- 0.43
- Σλ total
- 1.82
- P(over 2.5)
- 31%
- P(BTTS)
- 43%
- Modal score
- 1–0 22.5%
Circulo Deportivo vs Sol de Mayo prediction & xG model: Circulo Deportivo to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Circulo Deportivo v Sol de Mayo: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipCirculo Deportivo to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Circulo Deportivo v Sol de Mayo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (20 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Circulo Deportivo (home) | 1.20 | 0.75 | 1.54 | 1.38 |
| Sol de Mayo (away) | 0.71 | 0.97 | 0.95 | 0.66 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.20 × 0.75 × 1.54 ≈ 1.38
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.04 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.46 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.12 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.82 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.39, λaway = 0.43
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 61.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 11.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 22.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Circulo Deportivo | 53.3% | 69.0% | 52.0% | 61.9% |
| X Draw | 29.4% | 23.0% | 30.0% | 25.9% |
| 2 Sol de Mayo | 17.3% | 8.0% | 18.0% | 12.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Circulo Deportivo pick | 61.9% | 1.62 | 1.73 | 57.8% | +7.0% | |
| X · Draw | 25.9% | 3.86 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -22.2% | |
| 2 · Sol de Mayo | 12.2% | 8.20 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -39.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.8% | 1.14 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -2.5% | |
| X2 | 38.1% | 2.62 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -27.2% | |
| 12 | 74.1% | 1.35 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -3.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Circulo Deportivo | 83.5% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sol de Mayo | 16.5% | 6.07 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -11.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 42.4% | 2.36 | 2.38 | 42.0% | +1.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 31.4% | 3.18 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -17.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -1.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 14.9% | 6.73 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -25.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 85.1% | 1.17 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -2.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 43.3% | 2.31 | 2.50 | 40.0% | +8.1% | |
| BTTS no | 56.7% | 1.76 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -14.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.8% | 2.51 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 50.3% | 1.99 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 9.9% | 10.08 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.619 × 1.73 − 1 = +0.070 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.096 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Circulo Deportivo | Sol de Mayo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLDDL | LWDLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-3-3 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 33% |
| BTTS | 17% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 83% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Circulo Deportivo 62% to win. Standings: Circulo Deportivo 37th on 13, Sol de Mayo 28th on 18.
Form
Circulo Deportivo have zero wins from their last six (L D L D D L). Latest: 0–1 away at Guillermo Brown. Only 0.2 goals a match in that spell.
Sequence for Sol de Mayo: L W D L W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–2 at home to Kimberley Mar del Plata. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Circulo Deportivo 1.39 · Sol de Mayo 0.43 · total 1.82. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 69%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Circulo Deportivo to win, probability 62%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.62. Most probable score: Circulo Deportivo 1–0 Sol de Mayo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Circulo Deportivo vs Sol de Mayo?
The Model pick is Circulo Deportivo to win with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Circulo Deportivo v Sol de Mayo probabilities?
Circulo Deportivo win 62%, draw 26%, Sol de Mayo win 12%.
What is the most probable score for Circulo Deportivo vs Sol de Mayo?
Circulo Deportivo 1–0 Sol de Mayo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Circulo Deportivo vs Sol de Mayo?
Circulo Deportivo 1.39, Sol de Mayo 0.43 – over 2.5 at 31%, BTTS at 43%.
What time is Circulo Deportivo vs Sol de Mayo?
Sunday 12 July 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Estadio Guillermo Trama – Torneo Federal A.