Europe UEFA Nations League Mon 16 Nov 2026 · A. Le Coq Arena Upcoming

Estonia

DDWDW

18:00

Monday · WAT

Bulgaria

LDLWL

50%P(1)27%P(X)23%P(2)

λ home: 1.20
λ away: 0.61
Σλ total: 1.81
P(over 2.5): 31%
P(BTTS): 45%
Modal score: 1–0 19.7%

Estonia vs Bulgaria prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals

The Arena debate

Estonia v Bulgaria: who are you backing?

Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off

Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals69% chance · @1.44

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Estonia v Bulgaria are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (5 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Estonia (home)	1.28	0.76	1.30	1.28
Bulgaria (away)	1.25	0.81	0.55	0.56

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.28 × 0.76 × 1.30 ≈ 1.28

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	1.84	45%
Statistical xG feed	1.38	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.12	30%
Blended total λ	1.81	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.20, λ_away = 0.61

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Estonia λ = 1.20

030.1%

136.1%

221.7%

38.7%

42.6%

5+0.8%

Bulgaria λ = 0.61

054.6%

133.0%

210.0%

32.0%

40.3%

5+0.0%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Est \ Bul012345+

0169.93.00.6··

120123.60.7··

2127.22.2···

34.72.90.9···

41.40.9····

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 50.6%
Σ draw cells: 30.7%
Σ away-win cells: 18.7%
Most probable score: 1–0 · 19.7%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Estonia	52.8%	49.0%	47.1%	49.5%
X Draw	31.2%	18.0%	29.4%	27.4%
2 Bulgaria	16.0%	33.0%	23.5%	23.1%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.063 → 6.3% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Estonia	49.5%	2.02	2.00	50.0%	-1.0%
X · Draw	27.4%	3.65	3.20	31.3%	-12.3%
2 · Bulgaria	23.1%	4.33	4.00	25.0%	-7.6%
Double chance
1X	76.9%	1.30	1.28	78.1%	-1.6%
X2	50.5%	1.98	1.67	59.9%	-15.7%
12	72.6%	1.38	1.36	73.5%	-1.3%
Draw no bet
DNB Estonia	68.2%	1.47	–	–	–
DNB Bulgaria	31.8%	3.14	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	57.4%	1.74	1.53	65.4%	-12.2%
Under 1.5	42.6%	2.35	2.38	42.0%	+1.4%
Over 2.5	31.3%	3.20	2.62	38.2%	-18.0%
Under 2.5 pick	68.7%	1.46	1.44	69.4%	-1.1%
Over 3.5	14.8%	6.77	5.00	20.0%	-26.1%
Under 3.5	85.2%	1.17	1.14	87.7%	-2.8%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	45.3%	2.21	2.38	42.0%	+7.8%
BTTS no	54.7%	1.83	1.53	65.4%	-16.3%
Half-time
HT 1	33.5%	2.98	–	–	–
HT X	51.7%	1.93	–	–	–
HT 2	14.7%	6.79	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickUnder 2.5 goals

Probability68.7%

Fair odds1.46

Best odds1.44

EV per unit-1.1%

EV = 0.687 × 1.44 − 1 = -0.011 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Estonia	Bulgaria
Sequence	WDWDDW	LWLDLD
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	3-3-0	1-2-3
Points per match	2.00	0.83
Goals for / match	0.67	0.83
Goals against / match	0.17	2.00
Over 2.5	0%	67%
BTTS	17%	33%
Clean sheets	83%	33%
Failed to score	33%	50%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Estonia ahead at 50%, against 23% for Bulgaria and 27% for the draw. Standings: Estonia 2nd on 9, Bulgaria 3rd on 4.

Form

Estonia, last six: W D W D D W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at Luxembourg. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell. 5 shut-outs in that run.

Bulgaria, last six: L W L D L D – one win in total. Latest: 0–5 at home to Iceland. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.

Head to head

Last meeting (Sep 2026): Bulgaria 0–0 Estonia. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Estonia 1.20 · Bulgaria 0.61 · total 1.81. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 69%.

Model selection

Model selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 69%, odds 1.44 v fair 1.46. Most probable score: Estonia 1–0 Bulgaria. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.