Europe UEFA Nations League Thu 12 Nov 2026 · San Marino Stadium Full time

San Marino

LLLLL

0–2

Half-time 0–2

Belarus

DLDWW

8%P(1)14%P(X)78%P(2)

λ home: 0.59
λ away: 2.40
Σλ total: 2.99
P(over 2.5): 57%
P(BTTS): 46%
Modal score: 0–2 14.5%

San Marino vs Belarus prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

San Marino v Belarus: how the Arena called it

Full time: 0–2
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for San Marino v Belarus are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (5 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
San Marino (home)	1.28	0.67	0.65	0.56
Belarus (away)	1.25	0.97	1.82	2.20

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.28 × 0.67 × 0.65 ≈ 0.56

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.76	45%
Statistical xG feed	3.00	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.98	30%
Blended total λ	2.99	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 0.59, λ_away = 2.40

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

San Marino λ = 0.59

055.4%

132.7%

29.7%

31.9%

40.3%

5+0.0%

Belarus λ = 2.40

09.1%

121.8%

226.1%

320.9%

412.5%

5+9.5%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

San \ Bel012345+

05.01214126.95.3

13.07.18.66.84.13.1

20.92.12.52.01.20.9

3······

4······

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 7.3%
Σ draw cells: 15.2%
Σ away-win cells: 77.5%
Most probable score: 0–2 · 14.5%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 San Marino	8.0%	8.0%	7.2%	7.7%
X Draw	18.0%	17.0%	11.0%	14.5%
2 Belarus	74.1%	75.0%	81.8%	77.9%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.072 → 7.2% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · San Marino	7.7%	13.06	13.00	7.7%	-0.5%
X · Draw	14.5%	6.91	8.50	11.8%	+23.0%
2 · Belarus	77.9%	1.28	1.14	87.7%	-11.2%
Double chance
1X	22.1%	4.52	5.00	20.0%	+10.6%
X2	92.3%	1.08	1.01	99.0%	-6.7%
12	85.5%	1.17	1.05	95.2%	-10.2%
Draw no bet
DNB San Marino	8.9%	11.17	–	–	–
DNB Belarus	91.1%	1.10	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	79.1%	1.26	1.20	83.3%	-5.1%
Under 1.5	20.9%	4.78	4.33	23.1%	-9.5%
Over 2.5 pick	57.3%	1.75	1.65	60.6%	-5.5%
Under 2.5	42.7%	2.34	2.20	45.5%	-6.0%
Over 3.5	35.2%	2.84	2.62	38.2%	-7.7%
Under 3.5	64.8%	1.54	1.44	69.4%	-6.7%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	45.9%	2.18	3.25	30.8%	+49.1%
BTTS no	54.1%	1.85	1.33	75.2%	-28.0%
Half-time
HT 1	9.1%	11.01	–	–	–
HT X	34.8%	2.88	–	–	–
HT 2	56.1%	1.78	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickOver 2.5 goals

Probability57.3%

Fair odds1.75

Best odds1.65

EV per unit-5.5%

EV = 0.573 × 1.65 − 1 = -0.055 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	San Marino	Belarus
Sequence	LLLLLL	WWDLDW
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	0-0-6	3-2-1
Points per match	0.00	1.83
Goals for / match	0.50	1.83
Goals against / match	3.33	0.83
Over 2.5	100%	50%
BTTS	50%	33%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	50%	33%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Belarus favoured on the road at 78% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: San Marino 4th on 0, Belarus 2nd on 10.

Form

Sequence for San Marino: L L L L L L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–2 away at Albania. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match. No shut-outs in that run.

Sequence for Belarus: W W D L D W, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Finland. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Last meeting (Oct 2026): Belarus 4–0 San Marino. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG San Marino 0.59 · Belarus 2.40 · total 2.99. High total: over 2.5 57%, BTTS 46%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 57%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.75. Most probable score: San Marino 0–3 Belarus. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.