- λ home
- 1.01
- λ away
- 1.22
- Σλ total
- 2.24
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.2%
San Marcos de Arica vs San Luis prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: San Marcos de Arica 31% · draw 27% · San Luis 42%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
San Marcos de Arica v San Luis: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for San Marcos de Arica v San Luis are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (26 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Marcos de Arica (home) | 1.50 | 0.89 | 0.66 | 0.88 |
| San Luis (away) | 1.04 | 1.11 | 0.90 | 1.04 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.50 × 0.89 × 0.66 ≈ 0.88
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.91 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.36 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.24 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.01, λaway = 1.22
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 40.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 San Marcos de Arica | 29.2% | 37.0% | 28.1% | 30.5% |
| X Draw | 33.2% | 18.0% | 27.9% | 27.5% |
| 2 San Luis | 37.6% | 45.0% | 44.1% | 42.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.107 → 10.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · San Marcos de Arica | 30.5% | 3.28 | 3.22 | 31.1% | -1.7% | |
| X · Draw | 27.5% | 3.64 | 3.24 | 30.9% | -11.1% | |
| 2 · San Luis | 42.0% | 2.38 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -13.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.0% | 1.72 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -7.2% | |
| X2 | 69.5% | 1.44 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -13.2% | |
| 12 | 72.5% | 1.38 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -10.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB San Marcos de Arica | 42.1% | 2.38 | – | – | – | |
| DNB San Luis | 57.9% | 1.73 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -13.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 31.4% | 3.19 | 3.20 | 31.3% | +0.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43.8% | 2.29 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -17.7% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1.79 | 55.9% | +0.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.8% | 4.20 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -25.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 76.2% | 1.31 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -3.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.5% | 1.87 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -8.0% | |
| BTTS no | 46.5% | 2.15 | 1.98 | 50.5% | -7.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 23.4% | 4.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.9% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.7% | 3.37 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.562 × 1.79 − 1 = +0.007 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.008 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | San Marcos de Arica | San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLWWL | DWWWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 17% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 42% against 31%. Standings: San Marcos de Arica 6th on 43, San Luis 2nd on 54.
Form
San Marcos de Arica, last six: W D L W W L – three wins in total. Latest: 2–1 away at Deportes Temuco. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Sequence for San Luis: D W W W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Recoleta. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jun 2026): San Luis 1–0 San Marcos de Arica. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG San Marcos de Arica 1.01 · San Luis 1.22 · total 2.24. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 56%, odds 1.79 v fair 1.78. Most probable score: San Marcos de Arica 0–1 San Luis. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 6 Jun 2026San Luis1–0San Marcos de Arica
Primera B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cobreloa | 29 | +22 | 54 |
| 2 |  San Luis | 29 | +14 | 54 |
| 3 |  Santiago Wanderers | 29 | +16 | 50 |
| 4 |  Antofagasta | 29 | +25 | 48 |
| 5 |  Magallanes | 29 | +1 | 46 |
| 6 |  San Marcos de Arica | 29 | +7 | 43 |
| 7 |  Recoleta | 29 | -2 | 42 |
| 8 |  Deportes Copiapo | 29 | +1 | 41 |
| 9 |  Union Espanola | 29 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 |  Deportes Iquique | 29 | +9 | 38 |
| 11 |  D. Puerto Montt | 29 | -7 | 38 |
| 12 |  Deportes Temuco | 30 | +1 | 36 |
| 13 |  Curico Unido | 30 | -17 | 34 |
| 14 |  Deportes Santa Cruz | 29 | -14 | 24 |
| 15 |  Union San Felipe | 29 | -34 | 23 |
| 16 |  Rangers de Talca | 29 | -19 | 21 |
More Primera B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for San Marcos de Arica vs San Luis?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.79 by the bookmakers.
What are the San Marcos de Arica v San Luis probabilities?
San Marcos de Arica win 31%, draw 27%, San Luis win 42%.
What is the most probable score for San Marcos de Arica vs San Luis?
San Marcos de Arica 0–1 San Luis is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for San Marcos de Arica vs San Luis?
San Marcos de Arica 1.01, San Luis 1.22 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is San Marcos de Arica vs San Luis?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 22:00 WAT, at Estadio Carlos Dittborn – Primera B.