- λ home
- 2.49
- λ away
- 0.79
- Σλ total
- 3.28
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 2–0 11.7%
Hammarby W vs Kristianstad W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Hammarby W 74% · draw 16% · Kristianstad W 11%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Hammarby W v Kristianstad W: what are you seeing?
- 56′
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
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How the numbers for Hammarby W v Kristianstad W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (25 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby W (home) | 1.74 | 1.49 | 0.99 | 2.57 |
| Kristianstad W (away) | 1.39 | 1.09 | 0.51 | 0.77 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.74 × 1.49 × 0.99 ≈ 2.57
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.34 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.18 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.28 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.49, λaway = 0.79
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 74.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 15.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 9.8%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 11.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Hammarby W | 75.4% | 71.0% | 73.3% | 73.5% |
| X Draw | 15.7% | 15.0% | 16.1% | 15.7% |
| 2 Kristianstad W | 8.9% | 14.0% | 10.6% | 10.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Hammarby W | 73.5% | 1.36 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -9.6% | |
| X · Draw | 15.7% | 6.37 | 5.60 | 17.9% | -12.0% | |
| 2 · Kristianstad W | 10.8% | 9.27 | 8.50 | 11.8% | -8.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 89.2% | 1.12 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -5.4% | |
| X2 | 26.5% | 3.77 | 3.45 | 29.0% | -8.6% | |
| 12 | 84.3% | 1.19 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -6.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Hammarby W | 87.2% | 1.15 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Kristianstad W | 12.8% | 7.82 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.9% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.1% | 6.21 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 63.7% | 1.57 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.3% | 2.75 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 45.8% | 2.18 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -16.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 54.2% | 1.84 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -1.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.5% | 1.80 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -5.6% | |
| BTTS no | 44.5% | 2.25 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -12.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 54.8% | 1.83 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.5% | 2.98 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 11.7% | 8.56 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.555 × 1.70 − 1 = -0.056 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Hammarby W | Kristianstad W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWWL | WLLWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 3.17 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% |
| BTTS | 17% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Hammarby W at 74%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Hammarby W 2nd on 62, Kristianstad W 5th on 38.
Form
Hammarby W have five wins from their last six (W W W W W L). Latest: 4–0 at home to Spartak Myjava W. Scoring rate: 3.2 per match – well above average. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Kristianstad W, last six: W L L W W L – three wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Eskilstuna United W. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Kristianstad W 0–1 Hammarby W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Hammarby W 2.49 · Kristianstad W 0.79 · total 3.28. High total: over 2.5 64%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 1.70 v fair 1.80. Most probable score: Hammarby W 2–1 Kristianstad W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 23 May 2026Kristianstad W0–1Hammarby W
Damallsvenskan table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Häcken W | 25 | +64 | 68 |
| 2 |  Hammarby W | 25 | +50 | 62 |
| 3 |  Malmö FF W | 25 | +28 | 47 |
| 4 |  AIK W | 25 | +11 | 43 |
| 5 |  Kristianstad W | 25 | +5 | 38 |
| 6 |  Vittsjö W | 25 | -2 | 35 |
| 7 |  Eskilstuna United W | 25 | -9 | 33 |
| 8 |  Brommapojkarna W | 25 | -12 | 32 |
| 9 |  Djurgården W | 25 | -7 | 31 |
| 10 |  Piteå W | 25 | -6 | 28 |
| 11 |  Norrköping W | 25 | -11 | 27 |
| 12 |  Rosengård W | 25 | -7 | 24 |
| 13 |  Växjö W | 25 | -22 | 19 |
| 14 |  Uppsala W | 25 | -82 | 6 |
More Damallsvenskan predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Hammarby W vs Kristianstad W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.70 by the bookmakers.
What are the Hammarby W v Kristianstad W probabilities?
Hammarby W win 74%, draw 16%, Kristianstad W win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Hammarby W vs Kristianstad W?
Hammarby W 2–1 Kristianstad W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Hammarby W vs Kristianstad W?
Hammarby W 2.49, Kristianstad W 0.79 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Hammarby W vs Kristianstad W?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Hammarby IP – Damallsvenskan.