- λ home
- 1.55
- λ away
- 1.90
- Σλ total
- 3.45
- P(over 2.5)
- 67%
- P(BTTS)
- 68%
- Modal score
- 1–1 9.3%
Brann vs Viking prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Brann v Viking: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Brann v Viking are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 19 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brann (home) | 1.95 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 1.41 |
| Viking (away) | 1.59 | 1.36 | 1.00 | 2.16 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.95 × 1.00 × 0.73 ≈ 1.41
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.58 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.45 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.45 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.55, λaway = 1.90
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 31.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 46.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 9.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Brann | 24.5% | 34.0% | 31.4% | 32.9% |
| X Draw | 21.4% | 16.0% | 24.3% | 19.5% |
| 2 Viking | 54.1% | 50.0% | 44.4% | 47.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.099 → 9.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Brann | 32.9% | 3.04 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -4.6% | |
| X · Draw | 19.5% | 5.14 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -27.0% | |
| 2 · Viking | 47.6% | 2.10 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -2.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 52.4% | 1.91 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -11.0% | |
| X2 | 67.1% | 1.49 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -8.7% | |
| 12 | 80.5% | 1.24 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +0.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Brann | 40.8% | 2.45 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Viking | 59.2% | 1.69 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 85.9% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.1% | 7.08 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 33.0% | 3.03 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 45.3% | 2.21 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 68.4% | 1.46 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -4.2% | |
| BTTS no | 31.6% | 3.17 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -13.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.3% | 3.67 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.3% | 2.75 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 36.4% | 2.74 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.684 × 1.40 − 1 = -0.042 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Brann | Viking |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLLDW | WWWLDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 3.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Viking narrowly ahead at 48%; Brann 33%. Standings: Brann 7th on 33, Viking 1st on 62.
Form
Brann, last six: W W L L D W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to BodoGlimt. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Viking have four wins from their last six (W W W L D W). Latest: 3–0 away at Madla. Scoring rate: 3.2 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Brann 1.55 · Viking 1.90 · total 3.45. Goals expected – 67% for over 2.5 and 68% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 68%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.46. Most probable score: Brann 1–2 Viking. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Eliteserien table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 26 | +42 | 62 |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 26 | +40 | 62 |
| 3 |  Rosenborg | 26 | +21 | 46 |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 26 | +4 | 45 |
| 5 |  Molde | 26 | +20 | 44 |
| 6 |  Tromso | 26 | +3 | 40 |
| 7 |  Brann | 26 | +3 | 33 |
| 8 |  Valerenga | 26 | -4 | 32 |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 26 | -10 | 31 |
| 10 |  KFUM Oslo | 26 | -13 | 31 |
| 11 |  Ham-Kam | 26 | -15 | 30 |
| 12 |  Fredrikstad | 26 | -15 | 30 |
| 13 |  Sandefjord | 26 | -8 | 28 |
| 14 |  Kristiansund BK | 26 | -21 | 26 |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 26 | -15 | 24 |
| 16 |  Start | 26 | -32 | 19 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Brann vs Viking?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.40 by the bookmakers.
What are the Brann v Viking probabilities?
Brann win 33%, draw 19%, Viking win 48%.
What is the most probable score for Brann vs Viking?
Brann 1–2 Viking is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Brann vs Viking?
Brann 1.55, Viking 1.90 – over 2.5 at 67%, BTTS at 68%.
What time is Brann vs Viking?
Friday 9 October 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Brann Stadion – Eliteserien.