- λ home
- 1.72
- λ away
- 0.81
- Σλ total
- 2.53
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.7%
Albinoleffe vs Triestina prediction & xG model: Albinoleffe to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Albinoleffe v Triestina: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipAlbinoleffe to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Albinoleffe v Triestina are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 7 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albinoleffe (home) | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.21 | 1.88 |
| Triestina (away) | 1.26 | 0.92 | 1.02 | 1.18 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.30 × 1.20 × 1.21 ≈ 1.88
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.07 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.61 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.47 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.53 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.72, λaway = 0.81
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 58.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Albinoleffe | 53.0% | 70.0% | 46.5% | 60.1% |
| X Draw | 23.5% | 16.0% | 28.3% | 21.2% |
| 2 Triestina | 23.5% | 14.0% | 25.2% | 18.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.103 → 10.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Albinoleffe pick | 60.1% | 1.66 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +17.2% | |
| X · Draw | 21.2% | 4.72 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -32.2% | |
| 2 · Triestina | 18.7% | 5.35 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -32.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 81.3% | 1.23 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -0.8% | |
| X2 | 39.9% | 2.51 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -30.2% | |
| 12 | 78.8% | 1.27 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -1.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Albinoleffe | 76.3% | 1.31 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Triestina | 23.7% | 4.22 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.2% | 1.42 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -4.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.8% | 3.35 | 2.95 | 33.9% | -12.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.6% | 2.19 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -4.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -7.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.8% | 4.03 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -5.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.2% | 1.33 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -6.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 55.1% | 1.82 | 1.83 | 54.6% | +0.8% | |
| BTTS no | 44.9% | 2.23 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -19.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 41.7% | 2.40 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.3% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.0% | 6.25 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.601 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.172 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.182 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Albinoleffe | Triestina |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWWDW | DDLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-2-0 | 0-2-4 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Albinoleffe 60% to win.
Form
Albinoleffe have four wins from their last six (W D W W D W). Latest: 3–0 at home to Pergolettese. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.3 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Triestina, last six: D D L L L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Pro Patria. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Albinoleffe 1.72 · Triestina 0.81 · total 2.53. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Albinoleffe to win, probability 60%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.66. Most probable score: Albinoleffe 1–0 Triestina. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie C Girone A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Union Brescia | 14 | +16 | 31 |
| 2 |  Cittadella | 13 | +13 | 31 |
| 3 |  Trento | 14 | +13 | 30 |
| 4 |  Ospitaletto | 14 | +9 | 25 |
| 5 |  Arzignano Valchiampo | 14 | +5 | 24 |
| 6 |  Treviso | 13 | +5 | 22 |
| 7 |  Lecco | 13 | +11 | 20 |
| 8 |  Alcione | 14 | +1 | 18 |
| 9 |  Albinoleffe | 14 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 |  Pergolettese | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Lumezzane | 14 | -4 | 16 |
| 12 |  PRO Vercelli | 13 | -7 | 16 |
| 13 |  Desenzano Calvina | 14 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 |  Athletic Carpi | 14 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 |  Giana Erminio | 14 | -4 | 13 |
| 16 |  Novara | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 |  Renate | 14 | -1 | 12 |
| 18 |  Juventus U23 | 13 | -11 | 11 |
| 19 |  Dolomiti Bellunesi | 14 | -13 | 10 |
| 20 |  Folgore Caratese | 13 | -10 | 8 |
More Serie C Girone A predictions
League page →
Vicenza Virtus0
Pro Patria2
Inter U230
Virtus Verona1Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Albinoleffe vs Triestina?
The Model pick is Albinoleffe to win with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the Albinoleffe v Triestina probabilities?
Albinoleffe win 60%, draw 21%, Triestina win 19%.
What is the most probable score for Albinoleffe vs Triestina?
Albinoleffe 1–0 Triestina is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Albinoleffe vs Triestina?
Albinoleffe 1.72, Triestina 0.81 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Albinoleffe vs Triestina?
Sunday 19 April 2026, 13:30 WAT, at AlbinoLeffe – Serie C Girone A.